645
FXUS63 KLBF 190927
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
327 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 MPH, PEAKING UP TO 60 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE FELT ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
AND 50S THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD
OF A BROWN CHRISTMAS.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
RECENT GOES-16 WV IMAGERY AND RAP 500-MB ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PASSAGES, EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WAS NUDGING EAST
INTO THE WESTERN US. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WAS PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAS NOTED OVER THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND A COLD FRONT DRAPED WEST-NORTHWEST INTO
MONTANA. AT 3 AM CT, TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 30 DEGREES AT
NORTH PLATTE TO 49 DEGREES AT OGALLALA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
THE SURFACE LOW/CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST
THROUGH THE DAY, FORCING THE COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
NEBRASKA BY 00Z FRIDAY. IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES OF 5 TO 7MB/3 HOUR
PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) WILL FILL IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
THIS WILL SUPPORT A RATHER WINDY DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA,
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. RECENT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW 40 TO 50 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER, NEARING
60+ KTS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
TOPPING OUT AT 60 MPH OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THOUGH NOT
ATYPICAL TO HAVE WINDY DAYS ACROSS NEBRASKA, THE ECMWF EFI/SOT
CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS BEING AN
ANOMALOUS EVENT. NO CHANGES WERE DEEMED NECESSARY, THUS THE
HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT 9 AM CT / 8 AM MT THROUGH 4
PM CT / 3 PM MT THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HOLD OFF THE COLD
TEMPERATURES UNTIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR
AREAS NORTH OF I-80 TO THE MID-50S FOR AREAS SOUTH. AS HEIGHT
FALLS FILL IN OVERNIGHT ON AND THE FLOW BEGINS TO RELAX, THE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE DOWN TO 20 MPH OR LESS EARLY TONIGHT. THOUGH
REMAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, THE COLD AIR WILL BE
FELT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 TO
THE MID-TEENS FURTHER SOUTHWEST. A RETURN TO MORE QUIET
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 25 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE FOR AREAS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83, WARMING INTO THE 40S FOR AREAS WEST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE WESTERN US
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT CERTAINLY WON'T FEEL LIKE
CHRISTMAS WEEK AS NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORED OVER NOT ONLY THE REGION BUT ALSO THE ENTIRE CONUS
THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR. UNFORTUNATELY, ALL SIGNS POINT TO A
BROWN CHRISTMAS THIS YEAR WITH 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
WITH NO SNOW IN SIGHT AND BEING 4 DAYS OUT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
BREAKING THE LATEST DATE FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL (>0.1") IN
NORTH PLATTE REMAINS HIGH. THE RECORD FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL
WAS SET ON DECEMBER 23RD, 1939.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS SOMETIME CHRISTMAS NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON EVOLUTION AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM, IT WILL BE OUR NEXT AND ONLY SHOT AT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS AS MODELS COME TO A BETTER
CONSENSUS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE OF CONCERN THE REST OF TONIGHT AS
STRONG WEST WINDS WILL RESIDE JUST OFF THE SURFACE. LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THREAT WILL DECREASE MONDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE
AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AREA WIDE WITH SCT TO BKN
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO 4
PM CST /3 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ005>010-094.
SYNOPSIS...VIKEN
SHORT TERM...VIKEN
LONG TERM...VIKEN
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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