427
FXUS63 KLBF 192042
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
242 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY WILL DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON ALLOWING
THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE.
* COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS FRIDAY
MORNING DROPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
* QUIETER WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
MID 50S RETURNS THIS WEEKEND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTS UP TO
50 TO 60 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALREADY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND REMAIN STRONG
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE INHERITED HIGH WIND WARNING WAS EXPANDED
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE STRONGER
WINDS FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALLOWING THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS WINDS RAPIDLY DECREASING,
THEREFORE, IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED THAT STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING.
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-5 TO -10 C RANGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING IN THIS EVENING. THIS COLD AIR
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOWS TO EASILY DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THESE
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH WINDS STILL GUSTING TO NEAR 25 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT CT WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING INTO THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. WHILE NOT REACHING WIND CHILL HEADLINE
CRITERIA, THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS. TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS OR LIMIT TIME
SPENT OUTSIDE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO PROTECT FROM THESE
COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE COLDER AIR MASS WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA KEEPING LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE MID TEENS AND
WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TEENS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS ON FRIDAY LASTING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER, COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP IMPACTING
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 20S ACROSS EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA (WHERE THE
STRONGEST IMPACT FROM CAA IS EXPECTED) TO THE LOW 40S IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, CAA
SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST, BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOLER END
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT (MID TEENS TO LOW 20S).
THE RIDGE AS WELL AS MILD WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY SUNDAY KEEPING ANY
MAJOR CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF OUR AREA WITH MILD (HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S) AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING, TRACK, AND DEVELOPMENT REMAINS LOW IN
THIS SYSTEM, AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES, THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BE MOSTLY RAIN OR ONLY A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER
SUNSET BEFORE IT SWIFTLY MOVES TO THE EAST OUT OF OUR REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN EARLY
IN THIS TAF PERIOD.
FOR KVTN: WINDS AT KVTN ARE EXPECTED TO GUST AROUND 50KT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME
OBVIS FROM BLDU SO WILL USE A TEMPO TO 5SM FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE VALID PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THE VALID PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME MVFR CIGS NOT TOO FAR
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR A SUB-VFR CIG AT
KVTN IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS BEFORE THE CLOUDS MOVE OF TO THE
EAST. WILL ONLY MENTION SCT MVFR CLOUDS EARLY AND MONITOR TO
SEE IF AN AMENDMENT BECOMES NECESSARY. BY THIS EVENING EXPECT
JUST SCT HIGH CLOUDS BECOMING A CIG OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT.
FOR KLBF: WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE AT KLBF AND EXPECT
THEY WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY SO WILL GO STRAIGHT TO GUSTS AROUND
40KT AND KEEP THEM THERE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH HERE TO LOFT ANY DUST SO
WILL MAINTAIN VSBY AT P6SM WITH NO OBVIS. THERE MAY BE A FEW
VFR CLOUDS AROUND BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT UNTIL A MID/HIGH CIG
BUILDS OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID
PERIOD.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST /3 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ005>010-025>029-038-094.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...MBS
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