238
FXUS63 KLBF 210443
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1043 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH SUNDAY.
- BLUSTERY WINDS ON SUNDAY WITH ELEVATED TO POTENTIALLY NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEST OF HWY 83, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
- LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS ALREADY AND WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE,
COULD SEE LOWS DROP A BIT MORE BEFORE LEVELING OFF. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
GROWING CONCERN FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FIRE ZONES 210 AND POSSIBLY 219 IN
SOUTHWEST NE, WITH A COMBINATION OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT AND WINDS GUSTING AT OR ABOVE 20 KTS. IN
ADDITION, 850MB TEMPS NEARING DAILY CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX VALUES
AND SURFACE TEMPS 20-25 DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH PROLONGED
DRYNESS ACROSS THE AREA HAS LED TO AN ANOMALOUS SETUP FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 135 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN US INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND, THIS WILL START A NOTABLE WARMING TREND AND ANY ENERGY
CRESTING THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH SO THIS ALSO
PROMISES TO KEEP US DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT A BIG RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS
UNDERWAY WITH LOWS EAST OF HWY 83 IN THE TEENS BUT LOW/MID 20S
WILL BE MORE COMMON TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ALOFT CLIMB INTO
THE 90TH PERCENTILE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ON SATURDAY AND
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 55 DEGREES FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING TO SEE A
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST TO BE APPROACHING 60 DEGREES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE LOCATIONS ALONG THE HWY 281 CORRIDOR
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING A LOW ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA AND PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT INTO NEBRASKA FROM THE NORTH.
WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY BEHIND THE FRONT, THE
BEST SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE LATER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
SO THERE WILL BE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 TO WARM WELL INTO THE 60S. THE COMBINATION OF
PROLONGED DRYNESS, TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL, AND WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30MPH WILL CREATE ELEVATED TO POTENTIALLY NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY MAINLY WEST OF HWY 83
AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, DESPITE MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO MOVE EASTWARD AS ENERGY
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US FROM THE PACIFIC MOVES INLAND AND
UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE. NEBRASKA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TO OUR EAST AND
THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH HINTS OF A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME TOWARD MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED WITH A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS LESS THAN A 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, THIS WILL BEAR
WATCHING IN THE DAYS AHEAD. AT THIS TIME, THERMAL PROFILES ARE
FAVORING ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID BUT LOCATIONS MAINLY
EAST OF HWY 83 MAY BE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK AT THE SURFACE.
IF TEMPERATURES TREND DOWN AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS UP THERE
MAY BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AND IT NEVER TAKES MUCH
OF A GLAZE TO MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS, SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 10 KTS OR LESS AREA
WIDE.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...STOPPKOTTE
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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