182
FXUS63 KLBF 210954
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-WEEK
- MONITORING A SYSTEM MID-WEEK THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY
WARM FOR THIS WEEKEND. WAA WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES TO THE 90%, BUMPING THEM INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. THERE IS A CHANCE TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN WARMER
THAN FORECASTED GIVEN HOW WARM TEMPERATURES ARE JUST OFF THE SFC.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 850 TEMPS AROUND 10 TO
14 DEGREES CELSIUS, ALONG WITH DRIER AIR, COULD SEE SOME DEEPER
MIXING THAN ANTICIPATED AND TEMPERATURES COULD POTENTIALLY WARM A
FEW DEGREES WARMER, POSSIBLY INTO THE MID 60S SATURDAY, AND UPPER
60S SUNDAY, ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH,
EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES,
ALONG WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK.
SUNDAY WILL BE A GREATER CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH WEST
SANDHILLS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH GUST OF 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER ZONES 204, 210 AND 219,
WITH THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST FEW
WEEKS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH MIN
RH AROUND 25 TO 35 PERCENT THIS AREAS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WILL BE OF GREATEST CONCERN TO SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AS THERE COULD BE A NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR A SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS MID-
WEEK, CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY. MODELS HAVE FLUCTUATED ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WITH SOME NORTHWARD TREND IN THE
LATEST RUN. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS MID-WEEK SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS, SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 10 KTS OR LESS AREA
WIDE.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GOMEZ
LONG TERM...GOMEZ
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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