852
FXUS63 KLBF 212052
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
252 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S
CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
* ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY DUE
TO HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 25 PERCENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH.
* THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAINLY
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80, WITH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING
ALL RAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE. MILD WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOMORROW, SUNDAY, WHEN 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN
THE 11 TO 16 C RANGE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGHS WILL
EASILY RISE INTO THE MID 50S (NORTH CENTRAL) TO THE LOW 60S
(SOUTHWEST). OTHERWISE, THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY
MONDAY KEEPING ANY MAJOR CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF OUR AREA.
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL ALSO CAUSE SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH ALREADY VERY DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING, TRACK, AND
DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW IN THIS SYSTEM, THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERN EXTENT TO THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THIS COULD BRING PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS
THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME, THOUGH, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-80 AND THEREFORE, HAVE ONLY INCLUDED POPS FOR
GENERALLY THIS LOCATION. ONE THING THAT DOES HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IS
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. WITH THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN WITH ONLY A
BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR WILL MIX IN AFTER SUNSET.
THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL PUSH OUT BY THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH T HE END OF THE WEEK AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS BACK INTO THE PLAINS. OF NOTE, A MODEL OR TWO, NAMELY THE
GFS, SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVING IN TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PUT IT IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME, BUT IT'S WORTH MENTIONING HERE. AGAIN,
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THIS SYSTEM AS MOSTLY RAIN.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 3 TO 7 C
RANGE. THIS WILL CORRELATE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AND
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT, GENERALLY BELOW
10KTS. ON SUNDAY, WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 16Z, WITH
GUSTS TO 17KT AT KVTN BY 17Z.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...ROBERG
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