264
FXUS63 KLBF 221149
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
549 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTION OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS IS DUE TO AN OVERLAP OF TEMPERATURES 20 TO 25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL (LOW TO MIDDLE 60S IN SOUTHWEST NE), GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS, AND DRY CONDITIONS.
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH LIGHT WINDS KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LESSER.
- A SYSTEM CROSSES THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION LOCALLY
REMAINS LOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REVOLVE AROUND
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR TODAY, CONCERN CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN NEAR CRITICAL TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ALOFT, UPPER RIDGING PREVAILS, WITH A RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. UPSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE, AN
UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, QUICKLY FLATTENING OUT THE UPPER RIDGE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS BRINGS ABOUT A FAVORABLE RIDGE BREAKDOWN FOR
INCREASING FIRE CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON.
AT THE LOWER LEVELS, STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT H85 CONTINUES TO PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE CLIMO. AS DIURNAL MIXING
OCCURS AND THIS WARM AIR ALOFT IS PROMOTED DOWNWARDS, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD QUICKLY INCREASE TO SOME 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE (INTO
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA). ADD IN H7-H85 FLOW
ON THE ORDER OF 30-40KTS ALSO BEING PROMOTED DOWNWARDS (LEADING TO
NW WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40MPH WEST OF HWY 83), AND THIS POINTS
TOWARDS A VERY ANOMALOUS FIRE WEATHER SETUP FOR LATE DECEMBER.
HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITERIA, THOUGH STILL
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. NEAR CRITICAL TO LOCALLY CRITICAL CONCERNS LOOK TO
DEVELOP, AND ANY FIRE STARTS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO CONTROL.
DEBATED ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING WITH THIS PACKAGE, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGEVITY OF ANY CRITICAL CONDITIONS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON, AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. THIS CASTS ENOUGH DOUBT IN THE DEGREE OF BOTH MIXING
AND EVENTUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FOREGO ANY HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. STILL, TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY, AND PRECAUTIONS
SHOULD BE FOLLOWED AROUND ANY OPEN FLAMES THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN
THE GUSTY WINDS AND RECENT DRY CONDITIONS.
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BY MONDAY MORNING, WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSLATING OVERHEAD
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND SUNDAY'S COOL FRONT WILL
BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY RETURNING WARM ADVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND
HIGHS REMAIN AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE 40S
(NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA) TO THE 50S (ELSEWHERE). LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
FALL INTO THE 20S, WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION PERSISTING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
OUTSIDE OF A WEAK COOL FRONT TUESDAY MORNING, UPPER RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE LOCAL WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS TRANSLATES TO TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE (IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S) AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, AS A DEEP UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF THE
FOUR CORNERS. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE,
AND THIS WILL HAVE LARGE IMPACTS ON IF (AND HOW MUCH) PRECIPITATION
FALLS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE WIDELY
SUPPORTED SOLUTION SHOWS THE UPPER LOW EJECTING EASTWARD ALONG THE
KS/OK BORDER, EVENTUALLY TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS KEEPS THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF
FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. A LOOK AT ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS PROBABILITIES OF >0.1" OF QPF MAXIMIZING AT JUST
20-30% SOUTH OF I-80. WILL NOTE AT LEAST SOME DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
DOES POINT TOWARDS THE SYSTEM TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT MUCH QUICKER,
AND PLACES MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN A MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE AREA OF FORCING. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM, A LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS POINT TOWARDS AN ALL RAIN P-
TYPE, WITH A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR.
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, GUIDANCE BEGINS
TO PAINT A PATTERN SHIFT TOWARDS DEEPER WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PERIOD AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE
END OF THE YEAR, THOUGH CONFIDENCE WANES WITH RESPECT TO ANY PERIOD
LOOKING MOST FAVORABLE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOCALLY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS AND GUST UP TO 30 KTS. STRONG WINDS
WILL BE BRIEF, AS WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH BY LATE
AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT, UNDER 5KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...GOMEZ
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