847
FXUS63 KLBF 222350
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
550 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
- A SYSTEM CROSSES THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. NORTH PLATTE REACHED A
RECORD HIGH OF 71 DEGREES. WITH THE WARMTH AND GUSTY WINDS, NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WERE REACHED ACROSS THE SOUTH, THOUGH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IS BRINGING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING INCREASED
MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 30, WHICH IS AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MONDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN MT AND WESTERN WY. THE H5 FLOW ACROSS NEBRASKA WILL BE
WEST NORTHWESTERLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN REACH OVER 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST
AT ONLY AROUND 5 MPH, SO MIXING WILL BE LIMITED. WENT NEAR THE
NBM FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, WITH MID 40S IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST.
MONDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM 25 TO 30.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY, AS THE
AIRMASS REMAINS PACIFIC AND QUITE MILD. HIGHS REACH 50 TO 55
WEST AND 45 TO 50 EAST.
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE IN THE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY). AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A
DEEP UPPER LOW WILL REACH TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND ADVANCE TO NEAR THE CO/NM BORDER AREA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE AREA. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP MAY BRING
STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE MORNING AS SHOWN BY THE 15Z SREF. THE
13Z NBM ALSO BRING A 20-35 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF VISIBILITIES
LESS THAN 5 MILES NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE GFS AND
ECMWF EACH INDICATING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, WHERE 20 POPS EXIST IN THE
FORECAST.
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, AS THE 12Z GFS AND CANADIAN TRACK THE UPPER LOW FROM
FAR SOUTHEASTERN CO INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS ABOUT 150 MILES FURTHER SOUTHEAST BY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE A LARGE AFFECT ON THE
COVERAGE AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL REMAIN ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS PROBABILITIES OF >0.1" OF
QPF REACHING 30 TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE IS 10 TO 30 PERCENT
AT BEST. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, A LOOK AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS POINT TOWARDS PRECIPITATION FALLING AS ALL
RAIN, WITH A LACK OF LOW- LEVEL COLD AIR. HIGHEST POPS ARE 40
PERCENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S FRIDAY AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S SATURDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE SUPPORTS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BEYOND SATURDAY, GUIDANCE INDICATES A PATTERN
SHIFT TOWARDS COLDER TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AT THE
END OF THE YEAR, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO
ANY PERIOD LOOKING MOST FAVORABLE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOCALLY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH JUST SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE THIS
EVENING WITH WIND GENERALLY IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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