844
FXUS63 KLBF 231119
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
519 AM CST MON DEC 23 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (MIDDLE 40S TO LOW
50S) PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- THE NEXT SHOT A PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
(10-30%) AT THIS TIME. ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO PRIMARILY
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
- A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
(50S) IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO
THE RETURN OF INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST MON DEC 23 2024
CURRENTLY, A COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA, WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION PERSISTING EARLY THIS
MORNING. ALOFT, ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED, WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND UPSTREAM RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, EXPECT COLD ADVECTION TO QUICKLY WEAKEN LATE
THIS MORNING, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST, AND FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA ON ITS WESTERN
PERIPHERY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING THEN TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE
MUCH COOLER TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY, THOUGH STILL NEAR THE 75TH
PERCENTILE CLIMO FOR LATE DECEMBER. THIS ALL BOOSTS HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE AREA,
SOME 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE STILL. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S, WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WHERE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
ALLOWS FOR WEAK COLD ADVECTION INTO THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS AND
BE ENOUGH TO FACILITATE FOG FORMATION FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY
183 INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG NEARER TO THE HWY 281 CORRIDOR, AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY HEADLINES.
A SIMILAR DAY IS ON TAP FOR TOMORROW, AS THE COLDER AIRMASS IS
SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AGAIN CLIMB INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOW 50S, THOUGH A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
TODAY'S HIGHS. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE EVENING AND INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT, AS UPPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM INTO THE PLAINS
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST MON DEC 23 2024
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE
A PRIMARY FEATURE OF NOTE AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATTER
PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS LOW
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, THOUGH CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FROM
THE PREVIOUS FEW GUIDANCE CYCLES. THIS SHOWS AN THE UPPER LOW
EJECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS OKLAHOMA. WITH A WEAKER LOW AND SOUTHERLY TRACK,
CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING IN LESSER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOCALLY WITH THIS INITIAL SYSTEM. AS SUCH, PROBABILITIES OF
>0.1" OF PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION HAS DROPPED TO JUST 5-15%
FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-80 THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A
LOOK AT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CONTINUE TO POINT AT ANY
PRECIPITATION LARGELY FALLING AS RAIN, WITH EVEN A LACK OF COLD
AIR EVEN IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
A MORE COMPLEX EVOLUTION THEN BEGINS AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY, AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO EJECT ACROSS
THE ROCKIES. THE EXACT INTERACTION OF THIS TROUGH AXIS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM OPEN WAVE AS IT BEGINS TO EJECT
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS VERY UNCERTAIN, AND WILL
DRIVE ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, WITH
RESPECT TO THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD, AND
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGHER IN ACCUMULATING RAIN ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME.
UPPER RIDGING THEN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING MIDWEEK SYSTEM, AND THIS LOOKS TO DOMINATE WEATHER
LOCALLY INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS QUICKLY RETURN, AND
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION BOOSTS HIGHS BACK TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
YET AGAIN. WITH THE RETURN OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS, WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS GUIDANCE SHOWS RIDGE BREAKDOWN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WHAT IS NOT SEEN IN ANY GUIDANCE IS MUCH IN THE
WAY OF COLD AIR INTRUSIONS TO ROUND OUT THE YEAR, AND WINTER
LOOKS TO REMAIN ON HIATUS FOR AT LEAST A LITTLE WHILE LONGER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST MON DEC 23 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY BELOW 10KTS.
BY TONIGHT, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENTER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED FOR TERMINALS EAST OF HIGHWAY
183, AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID
PERIOD.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...BROWN
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