359
FXUS63 KLBF 232329
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
529 PM CST THU JAN 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
SANDHILLS AND INTO THE PANHANDLE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.
- AFTER A COOL WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL, EXPECT A
WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL
FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION FROM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE
LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST THU JAN 23 2025
CLOUDS AND LINGERING FLURRIES ARE HOLDING ON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND TAKING ON MORE OF A CELLULAR LOOK AS SOME HEATING MAKES
IT THROUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, THOUGH RADAR RETURNS ARE GRADUALLY
TRENDING DOWN. EXPECT THE DOWNWARD TREND IN CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND AS THE UPPER TROF
AXIS CROSSES THE REGION AND MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. AS FLURRIES,
CLOUDS, AND GUSTY WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL
TUMBLE WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF +10F.
TEMPERATURES WILL PERK UP WITH SOME SHALLOW RIDGING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TO AROUND 30 DEGREES
UP TOWARD THE PINE RIDGE.
BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING TOMORROW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN AND DEFORMATION. HOWEVER THE
BEST MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT IS LARGELY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS WEST
OF HWY 83 WITH A FEW STREAMERS EXTENDING FURTHER TO THE EAST. GIVEN
THE EXTENT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 61 WITH FLURRIES
EXTENDING FURTHER TO THE EAST. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS KEEN
TO LIMIT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS TOWARD THE
PINE RIDGE WHERE THERE IS UP TO A 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH PERHAPS A DUSTING
EXTENDING OUT TO THE HWY 83 CORRIDOR OR JUST A BIT BEYOND.
HOWEVER THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE THAN
A DUSTING IN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM GORDON THROUGH HYANNIS AND
THEDFORD TO NEAR BROKEN BOW WITH UP TO A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WILL KEEP ACCUMULATIONS
CLOSE TO PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO NORTH OF
I-80 AND WEST OF HWY 83. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS FROM THE SANDHILLS INTO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST THU JAN 23 2025
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRANSITIONING THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN TO A SPLIT FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND WITH A BROAD
NORTHERN STREAM TROF SHEARING OFF AND MOVING INTO THE THE
NORTHEASTERN US WHILE A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAVE NEBRASKA
GENERALLY IN SOME SHALLOW NORTHERN STREAM RIDING WITH GRADUALLY
RISING HEIGHTS, WARMING TEMPERATURES, AND LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EFI/SOT AND NAEFS ANOMALIES SHOW
LITTLE SIGNAL FOR HIGH IMPACT WEATHER SO ITS LOOKING LIKE A SOMEWHAT
QUIET PERIOD WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A TREND TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST THU JAN 23 2025
WITH SNOW DIMINISHING, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO RISE BACK IN INTO VFR.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DROP TO BELOW 10 KNOTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, BUT GUSTS WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR 30 KNOTS FRIDAY MORNING,
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND
LOWERING OF CEILINGS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AS WELL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...KULIK
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