187
FXUS63 KLBF 241123
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
523 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW IS POSSIBLE (15-30%) ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1" ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE
(HIGHS IN THE 40S) ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO EARLY AND MIDDLE
NEXT WEEK.
- AN APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND COULD LEAD TO
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW (<30% IN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS) FOR NOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
FOR TODAY, EXPECT A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING, WITH INCREASING COLD ADVECTION WITH ITS PASSAGE. THAT
SAID, THE COLDER AIR LOOKS TO LAG THE FRONT SOMEWHAT, AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO RETURN TO THE 30S (NORTH OF (I-80) AND LOW 40S
(ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80). BY THIS EVENING, THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL SWING THROUGH OVERHEAD, WITH INCREASING COLD ADVECTION ALOFT.
THIS TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING FGEN ALOFT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA, WITH SNOW INCREASING FIRST NEAR THE PINE
RIDGE, SPREADING SOUTH WITH TIME. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN
HIGHEST IN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG/WEST OF HWY 61 TONIGHT,
WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF
SNOW. THIS IS WHERE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1" ARE POSSIBLE. THOUGH
FGEN DOES INCREASE MARKEDLY THIS EVENING, FORCING LOOKS TO TRANSLATE
RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, LIMITING HOW
LONG SNOWFALL LINGERS OVER ANY ONE LOCATION. THIS IS FURTHER
COMPOUNDED BY HOW QUICKLY TOP-DOWN SATURATION PROCESSES CAN OCCUR
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA, LARGELY RESTRICTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE. FURTHER TO THE EAST CLOSER TO HWY 83, INCREASING
DRY LOWER LEVELS LOOKS TO INHIBIT THE THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. THAT SAID, DO THINK ENOUGH FORCING EXISTS TO LEAD TO
FLURRIES TONIGHT EVEN WITH THE LACK OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL SATURATION
SEEN FURTHER WEST.
ANY PRECIPITATION QUICKLY MOVES OUT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING,
BRINGING WITH IT A COLDER AIRMASS. HIGHS ONLY REACH THE 20S NORTH OF
I-80, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO SUNDAY MORNING, SETTING UP TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME THEN BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS AS WE
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH A CUTOFF LOW DRIFTING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN US. DEEPER TROUGHING ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN US, WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN A COL ALOFT. SUBTLY RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHING
LOCALLY, HIGHS LOOK TO RETURN AND STAY ABOVE AVERAGE (HIGHS IN THE
40S) FOR EARLY AND MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. THIS BENIGN REGIME LOOKS TO
PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS, BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US BEGINS TO EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS LATE WEEK. THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE, THOUGH WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE COMING DAYS. AT
LEAST A PORTION OF GUIDANCE QUICKLY DEEPENS THIS LOW AS IT
EJECTS NORTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS, AND THIS WOULD LEAD TO AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. IN
FACT, A LOW CONFIDENCE (<50% OF MEMBERS SUGGESTING AN ANOMALOUS
EVENT) SIGNAL EVEN EXISTS IN EFI GUIDANCE, WITH SOT ALREADY >0
FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NE ON FRIDAY. THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW INTO MIDWEEK, WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
THE THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BY THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THIS LEADS TO INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND LOWERING
VISIBILITIES, WITH LOW-END VFR/LOCALLY MVFR EXPECTED. SNOW ENDS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30KTS EXPECTED. WINDS REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, WEAKENING TO 5 TO 10KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...BROWN
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