433
FXUS63 KLBF 250512
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1112 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY FROM HWY 61 WESTWARD AND ESPECIALLY
FROM THE WESTERN SANDHILLS TOWARD THE PINE RIDGE.
- COOL AND BLUSTERY TO START THE WEEKEND, THEN BECOMING WARMER
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEXT WEEK.
- POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK THOUGH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS LOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 154 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
SKIES WERE GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT CLOUDS WERE INCREASING QUICKLY
FORM THE NORTH AS COLDER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT IS POISED TO PUSH
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE ADVANCING COLDER AIR WILL TIGHTEN THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND ENHANCE MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING WHILE AN
ADVANCING SHORT WAVE AND JET STREAK ALOFT FURTHER AID LIFT. HOWEVER
THE THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE PANHANDLE
WESTWARD WITH SOME BLEEDOVER FURTHER TO THE EAST. ANTICIPATE THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW NEAR THE PINE RIDGE IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CAN ALREADY SEE ECHOES APPEARING UPSTREAM ON
RADAR. THE BLOOMING ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD AS
THE BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT ADVANCES INTO TONIGHT. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE FROM HWY 61 WESTWARD
FROM THE THE WESTERN SANDHILLS INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH
A BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH OR
LESS. PROBABILITIES FOR ANY APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION DIMINISH
QUICKLY FURTHER TO THE EAST THOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A
DUSTING EAST TO ABOUT HWY 83 AND PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER.
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY WITH HIGH RANGING
FROM THE LOW/MID 30S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TO THE LOWER 20S FROM
THE WESTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE COLDER AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE WILL CREATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ALLOW
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT TO MIX DOWN WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS UP TO A 50
PERCENT CHANCE FOR GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 40MPH MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 AND ALONG/EAST OF HWY 83 BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH
SATURDAY EVENING. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH
READINGS GENERALLY DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 154 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRANSITIONING THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN TO A SPLIT FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND WITH A BROAD
NORTHERN STREAM TROF SHEARING OFF AND MOVING INTO THE THE
NORTHEASTERN US WHILE A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAVE NEBRASKA
GENERALLY IN SOME SHALLOW NORTHERN STREAM RIDING WITH GRADUALLY
RISING HEIGHTS, WARMING TEMPERATURES, AND LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US WILL EJECT
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WHILE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
AND ALSO INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS OF THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS, THE
SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE CLOSER AND FOR TIMING PURPOSES WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE EPS WHICH IS AMONG THE FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTIONS. EPS EVOLUTION FAVORS THE EJECTING UPPER LOW DRIVING
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS POINT
LOOKING TO BE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES A 25 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR MORE. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SYSTEM IS CONSIDERABLE AS GEFS QPF PLUMES
ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AT AN INCH OR LESS WITH 3 NOTABLE OUTLIERS
SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER, AND EFI GUIDANCE INDICATES POOR AGREEMENT
AMONG THE CONSTITUENT MEMBERS THOUGH RELATED SOT GUIDANCE
INDICATES A HIGH CEILING FOR THE EVENT AS THE HIGHER END
SOLUTIONS HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE SUBSTANTIAL ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FOR NOW THE MAIN TAKEAWAY
IS THAT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM BUT IT IS WORTH
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON SINCE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
LIGHT SNOW AND AND MVFR CEILINGS AT KLBF WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
07Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KLBF AND
KVTN TERMINALS.
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR
32017G30KT AT KVTN BETWEEN 14Z-22Z.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ROBERG
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