477
FXUS63 KLBF 251113
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
513 AM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
- DRY WEATHER IS LARGELY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A RETURN TO ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES LIKELY.
- A MORE PRONOUNCED STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEEK THAT COULD BRING THE THREAT
FOR WINTRY WEATHER. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, LIGHT SNOW WAS TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHERE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH WERE NOTED.
THIS WAS LARGELY DRIVEN BY MODEST MID-LEVEL FGEN LAGGING BEHIND A
STOUT COLD FRONT SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE FEATURE, SNOW WAS QUICK TO WIND DOWN WITH NO LOCATIONS
REPORTING SNOW IN THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 0830Z. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL SHUNT
ANY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. A DIGGING TROUGH IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND WILL PLAY A
ROLE IN THE LOCAL FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY, REACHING NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHEAST
MONTANA BY THIS AFTERNOON. STEADY PRESSURE RISES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TO PLAGUE THE AREA. BROAD TROUGHING TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL PROMOTE STRONGER FLOW OFF THE SURFACE AND ALLOW FOR
GUSTY WINDS NEARING 45 MPH TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT FAR NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. FLOW WILL
PEAK IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE GUSTS TO WANE, FALLING BELOW 30 MPH BY THE
AFTERNOON FOR MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS AND BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE
BY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS THE BOARD FROM FRIDAY'S PEAK VALUES. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN
THE LOW 20S FOR THE SANDHILLS INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, AND LOW
30S ELSEWHERE. FACTORING IN THE WINDS, FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR MOST AND ONLY REACH THE
LOW 20S FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
COLDER AS HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE INCREASES. THE DRY AIR AND
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SINGLE DIGITS AND POTENTIALLY
SOME SLIGHT NEGATIVE VALUES. SKIES SHOULD SEE DECREASING CLOUDS BUT
STRUGGLE TO FULLY CLEAR OUT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY
HIGH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
UPPER-TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE
NEWLY DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO CUTOFF
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND STALL OVER CALIFORNIA. AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS SLOWLY FILL IN BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS.
SUNDAY...THE LONE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
MATERIALIZE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES. MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD
HELP DRIVE WEAK LIFT, PERHAPS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW
IMMEDIATELY WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE INCREASED
POPS BUT KEPT THEM BELOW 15 PERCENT, WHICH PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. SREF/NAM OUTPUT SUGGEST LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO
INTRODUCE LIGHT SNOW BUT ALL OTHER GUIDANCE REMAINS DRY SO WILL
CONSIDER THESE TWO THE OUTLIERS FOR NOW. SHOULD ANY PRECIPITATION
OCCUR, IMPACTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL AT BEST WITH LITTLE TO NO
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. A BELT OF ENHANCED FLOW OFF THE SURFACE
WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND IT'S HERE WHERE
INCREASED GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN TROUBLESOME. WHILE PEAK SPEEDS
AREN'T EXPECTED TO MATCH WHAT IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY, WESTERLY
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT WARM
UP WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE 30S FOR MOST.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARMUP TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY.
ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX QUICKLY FLIPS FROM NEGATIVE ANOMALIES
TO POSITIVE GOING FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY. THESE POSITIVE ANOMALIES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COINCIDES WITH
ANOMALOUS H85 TEMPERATURES AS ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE GEFS/EPS
SOLUTIONS. DAYTIME HIGHS EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY APPEAR SET
TO REACH THE 40S AND 50S. GIVEN A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FORECAST
WINDS AND ABUNDANT DRY AIR, THESE TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. EVEN WITHOUT ANY POTENTIAL CLIMB, THE DRY AIR
AND UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. AT THIS TIME, RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS BEING MET ANY
ONE DAY DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. STEADY WESTERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY
GUST IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE.
FRIDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO SHUFFLE EAST AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND LIFT NORTH
AND EAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE PROFILE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS VARY ON PLACEMENT OF GREATEST UPPER-LEVEL
DYNAMICS, HOWEVER, AN EJECTING H5 LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN
THE VICINITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR SOME IN THE AREA. NBM HIGHER PERCENTILE DATA PAINTS QPF
SOUTHEAST OF A SIDNEY TO AINSWORTH LINE WHEREAS AREAS TO THE
NORTHWEST REMAIN DRY. GENERALLY SPEAKING, THIS MATCHES LATEST
EPS/GEFS PROBABILITIES THOUGH PRECISE AMOUNTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION. PROBABILITIES OF QPF EXCEEDING A TENTH OF AN INCH REMAIN
LIMITED, AROUND 20 TO 40% FOR OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES, WITH GREATER
PROBABILITIES FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION, DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST A MIX TO RAIN AND
LIMIT IMPACTS. THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER
FORECASTS FOR UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS THREAT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS STRENGTHEN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING, AND
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 30 TO 35KTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TERMINALS, BEFORE WINDS
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...BROWN
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