604
FXUS63 KLBF 252013
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
213 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN AVERAGE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW,
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.
- A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
- AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, THOUGH HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
THE TRACK AND IMPACTS.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALS MOSTLY ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OBSERVED
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
DEEPENING OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT
IS TRACKING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA, CONTINUING OUR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE IS OBSERVED OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ON SATELLITE, A BROAD
EXPANSE OF STRATUS IS OBSERVED OVER THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AFTER SUNSET, A
SHALLOW INVERSION DEVELOPS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. WITH THE
SHALLOW INVERSION, COULD SEE SOME GUSTS MIXING DOWN ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83 TONIGHT, BUT GENERALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH OVER 20
MILES PER HOUR. WITH THE FAIRLY STUBBORN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT, WENT
AHEAD AND TRENDED OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER BY A FEW DEGREES, BUT STILL
EXPECT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO AROUND
11 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH, AND IT IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING, THE
POLAR JET BEGINS TO DEVELOP RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
WHICH WILL LARGELY DRIVE THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK. ALSO OF
NOTE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIPS SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE
TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAIRLY GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL IN THE LOW
LEVELS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL WINDS DO APPEAR TO
BE CALMER. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 TO 25 MILES PER HOUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGER
GUSTS MORE LIKELY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER
IN CLEARER SKIES, AND WITH THE GENERALLY CALMER WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT,
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
BY MONDAY, THE RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINS TO EXPAND
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, BEING FULLY ESTABLISHED OVER WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK, AND WILL LARGELY SUPPORT A
WARM, DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL GENERALLY BRING
DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK.
ON FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO
TRACK NORTHEAST, WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINING IN THE
TRACK. CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS A MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS. HOWEVER, AROUND 20
PERCENT OF THE SOLUTIONS TRACK OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES, REACHING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. GEFS SPAGHETTI PLOTS OFFER
LITTLE REASSURANCE ON THE TRACK, AS THE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
WIDELY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ALSO VARIES A
BIT ON TRACK AND FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THE SYSTEM, WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION KEEPING THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF
QUICKLY PROGRESSES THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WHAT HAS STOOD OUT
FROM THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS IS THE JET STREAK DEVELOPING ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH HAS TWO
MAIN IMPACTS ON THE LONG TERM FORECAST. FIRST, THIS WILL HELP THE
LOW LIFT BACK INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND TRACK EAST. SECONDLY,
THIS IS CREATING A LARGE AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT SOMEWHERE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, THOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY
WHERE THIS SETS UP.THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD SEE A SURFACE
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND GIVEN THE
EXPECTED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THIS SYSTEM, THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO BRING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
IF THE CURRENTLY MORE FAVORED SOUTHERN SOLUTION IS REALIZED, THEN
THE LOW IS MORE FAVORED OVER EASTERN KANSAS, WITH JUST A GLANCING
BLOW OF PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THESE
SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO MORE FAVORABLE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX GIVEN THE
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPS. HOWEVER, IF
THE MORE NORTHERN, AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER SOLUTION IS REALIZED
(CURRENTLY AROUND 20% CHANCE FROM CLUSTER ANALYSIS), THEN THE LOW IS
MORE LIKELY TO SET UP OVER WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WOULD PUT WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION RELATIVE TO
THE STORM FOR PRECIPITATION. THE CURRENT NB< GUIDANCE FAVORS THE
SOUTHERN SOLUTION, BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS (GENERALLY
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT) ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA STARTING FRIDAY LASTING INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THIS
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST, EXPECT TO SEE CHANGES IN THE LONG
TERM FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD IS GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING AT OR ABOVE 30KT FOR KVTN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE KLBF SEES NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20KT. HOWEVER
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING
THIS EVENING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE VALID PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME RADAR RETURNS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 THOUGH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FLURRIES ARE REACHING
THE GROUND AND THE BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST SO DO NOT SEE ANY NEED TO INTRODUCE VCSH AT EITHER
KLBF OR KVTN.
KLBF WILL SEE VFR CIGS UNDER AN EXPANSIVE DECK OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. KVTN IS ON THE EDGE OF A TRANSITORY
PATCH OF SUB- VFR CLOUDS THAT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING SO WILL MAINTAIN A PREVAILING
VFR WITH A TEMPO TO MVFR FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THEREAFTER EXPECT KVTN WILL VFR UNDER MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RICHIE
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...RICHIE
AVIATION...MBS
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