219
FXUS63 KLBF 261734
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1134 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK, PARTICULARLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- A STORM SYSTEM IS SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK THAT MAY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS REMAINS LOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVERHEAD AS OF 09Z (3AM CST). THIS
IS HELPING TO ALLOW COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS UNDER CLEARER SKIES. FURTHER SOUTH, PERSISTENT
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS HELD TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH TEENS TO
NEAR 20 DEGF BEING OBSERVED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
FOR TODAY, EXPECT DECREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY AS BROAD
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP PROMOTE WARMING ACROSS
THE AREA AND AS SUCH HAVE GIVEN FORECAST HIGHS A SLIGHT BOOST TODAY.
THOUGH A HEAVY LEAN ON STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WAS USED, COMPARISON TO
NBM PROBABILISTIC DATA SUGGESTS THERE MAY STILL BE ROOM TO INCREASE.
GOING VALUES RIGHT NOW RANGE FROM LOW 30S IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS
TO MIDDLE 30S SOUTH AND EAST. AS MENTIONED, WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY AND GUSTS WILL APPROACH 20 TO 25 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WITH WEAKER WINDS SOUTH. WEST WINDS CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND SHOULD ALLOW A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR COLD AIR DRAINAGE.
EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS AND THE RIVER VALLEYS. EXPECT UPPER TEENS TO THE EAST AND
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE WEST AS WELL AS IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA THIS UPCOMING WEEK. ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL PROMOTE
INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EACH DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS A
DEEP CUTOFF LOW TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, DEEP TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL STALL INVOF THE HUDSON BAY. ENHANCED MID-
LEVEL FLOW WILL RESIDE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL
EXHIBIT ENOUGH OVERLAP TO ALLOW GUSTY WINDS AGAIN EACH DAY. AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. PRIOR TO THIS AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE AREA, A
SMALLER MORE FOCUSED AREA OF RESIDUAL DRY AIR WILL BE PINCHED OFF.
VARIOUS NWP OUTPUT ADVERTISES SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGF ABOVE NORMAL, AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FALL SHARPLY. DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ALL ADVERTISE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S AND EVEN SOME
UPPER TEENS. HREF PROBABILITIES OF HUMIDITY MINIMUMS BELOW 25
PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 MPH CLIMBING EXCEEDING 70% FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA SUGGESTING AT LEAST AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
THREAT. POINT SOUNDINGS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOW LIMITED MIXING
HEIGHTS OF LESS THAN 1KM AND SO OVERALL CONCERN IS TEMPERED A BIT.
EVEN SO, THE FORECAST MIXING HEIGHTS ARE ENOUGH TO TAP INTO THE
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AROUND H85 WITH FORECAST GUSTS NEAR 20 TO 25
MPH. WILL HIGHLIGHT "NEAR-CRITICAL" FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR ZONE
209 AND ELEVATED CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. SHOULD RED FLAG CONDITIONS BE
MET, CONFIDENCE IN SEEING THREE CONSECUTIVE HOURS IS LOW SO NO
HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. THOUGH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY
SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY MINIMUMS TO REMAIN SAFELY ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. EVEN SO, ELEVATED CONCERNS WILL EXIST AS HUMIDITY
FALLS INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE AND GUSTS PEAK AROUND 20 TO 30
MPH.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING PINCHES OFF AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHWEST CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS PEAK WEDNESDAY BEFORE HEIGHT FALLS
BEGIN SOMETIME THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. AS THE AREA IS CAUGHT DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-
LEVEL LOW, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AND USHER IN
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN, THOUGH SIMILAR DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THE
INCREASING MOISTURE QUALITY WILL PREVENT AFTERNOON HUMIDITY FROM
FALLING TOO FAR AND THUS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MUTED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY
WITH ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
PRECLUDE ANY WINTRY WEATHER CONCERNS BUT AS TEMPERATURES FALL IN THE
EVENING, A TRANSITION TO AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX APPEARS PROBABLE.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDOW OF GREATEST POTENTIAL IMPACTS
FROM A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LIFTING SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS
APPEAR MAXIMIZED SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND SO ONLY A GLANCING
BLOW AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION APPEARS POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME.
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM: AS MAIN TROUGH BEGINS CROSSING THE ROCKIES,
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES AND ALLOWS A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL
LOW WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF A STRONG PV ANOMALY. THE
GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT STRONG DEFORMATION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE TRACKING MID-
LEVEL LOW SHOULD ALLOW APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOCALLY.
RECENT TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO SHIFT POPS SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST THOUGH
PROBABILITIES STILL ONLY PEAK AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR NOW. THOUGH
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN A NOTABLE INCREASE IN QPF FOR THE
AREA DUE TO THIS STRONG DEFORMATION, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH EPS/GEFS BOTH SHOWING PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING
0.1" TOTAL GENERALLY LESS THAN 60 PERCENT ANYWHERE IN THE LOCAL
AREA. OF NOTE, THE ECMWF EFI, WHICH IS BASED OFF THE EPS, HAS SHOWN
A LARGE INCREASE IN SOT VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS SO SIGNALS FOR
THE HIGHER QPF ARE PRESENT BUT NOT FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. A SHARP QPF
GRADIENT APPEARS PROBABLE ONCE AGAIN AS DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST
LOOKS TO COMBAT PRECIPITATION. WHILE DYNAMICS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO ALLOW SOME MODEST SNOW POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST AND SO ANY WINTRY THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED
TO MAINLY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE PESSIMISTIC QPF OUTLOOK
FROM ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS, PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 1" TOTAL SNOW
ARE LIMITED TO LESS THAN 30 PERCENT FROM BOTH THE EPS/GEFS. SO
WINTRY IMPACTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT BUT DON'T APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANT. THOUGH WPC INCLUDES FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THEIR DAY
5 WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY), CONFIDENCE
REMAINS QUITE LOW FOR THE REASONS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. WHILE FINAL
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN DAY-TO-DAY
TEMPERATURES, THE LACK OF A COLD AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN FAIRLY MILD. HIGHS ON FRIDAY FALL TO
THE LOW 40S BUT RECOVER FOR SATURDAY TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPEARS SET TO TRACK THROUGH THE AREA TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL REINTRODUCE MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THE LATEST CPC DAY 8-14 OUTLOOK
SUGGESTS 60-70% PROBABILITIES FOR SEEING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO START FEBRUARY AND SO ALL SIGNS POINT TO ANOTHER FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT COLD OUTBREAK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THORUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
CURRENTLY SKC AT KVTN AND EXPECT THE VFR CIG AT KLBF WILL
EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO SKC BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS SINK
SOUTHWARD. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING UNTIL MID/HIGH CLOUDS PUSH IN FORM THE
NORTH AT KVTN.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AROUND 10KT OR LESS BUT WOULD NOT
BE OVERLY SURPRISED TO SEE A GUST OR TWO 15 TO 20KT ESPECIALLY
AT KVTN BUT WILL OMIT FOR NOW AND AMEND IF GUSTS MATERIALIZE.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET THOUGH WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR BUT WILL INCLUDE A MENTION AT KVTN WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO
STRONGER WINDS MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS BECOME GUSTY
TOWARD THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD THOUGH ANY GUSTS EXCEEDING 20
TO 25KT LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON, BEYOND
THIS TAF PERIOD.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...MBS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page