392
FXUS63 KLBF 271151
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
551 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE COMBINATION OF MILD TEMPERATURES, DRY AIR, AND BREEZY
WEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST CONCERNS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN 40S TO 50S) AND DRY
CONDITIONS THEN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
- A SYSTEM CROSSES THE PLAINS LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS LOCALLY REMAINS LOW (10-30%) AND
ANY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LOOK
TO REMAIN LIGHT AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL REVOLVE AROUND CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT CAN BE FOUND
IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
CURRENTLY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA,
WITH ADDITIONAL DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS DEEP
UPPER TROUGHING OVER CANADA IS LEADING TO BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH THE AREA JUST ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. AT THE SURFACE, THE AREA
REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPSTREAM, A DEEP SURFACE LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY.
FOR TODAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM HUDSON BAY AND
INTO QUEBEC INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING,
APPROACHING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONSTRICTED, AND HELP TO PROMOTE INCREASING
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ESTABLISH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, PROMOTING AMPLE
DIURNAL MIXING. THE COMBINATION OF THE CONSTRICTED SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 MILES PER HOUR THIS AFTERNOON. CONCERNINGLY, DRY AIR WILL
ALSO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TODAY FROM WYOMING, AND WILL SEND
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY,
THIS WILL SEND HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THE
GREATEST OVERLAP OF LOW HUMIDITY, GUSTY WINDS, AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA, AND THIS IS
WHERE A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST TODAY TO COVER
THIS THREAT.
ONE CAVEAT DOES REMAIN THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH, AS IT
CROSSES THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BE
USHERED INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE, AND LEAD TO INCREASING
DEWPOINTS INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY MARK THE END OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, AND THE TIMING OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. BY TONIGHT, WESTERLY FLOW
AGAIN ESTABLISHES, AND SHOULD KEEP LOWS MORE MILD THAN THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS, IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S. THIS PERSISTENT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AGAIN BOOSTS HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S ON
TUESDAY, THOUGH ENOUGH SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TO KEEP
FIRE CONCERNS A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS THE AREA. STILL, BREEZY
WEST WINDS AND HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S COULD
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY STEADY STATE INTO LATE WEEK,
WITH THE AREA IN POSITIONED IN A COL BETWEEN DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND A CUTOFF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE (IN THE 50S) AND DEVOID OF ANY
PRECIPITATION. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE DAY HAVING CONCERNS GREATER
THAN ELEVATED IS LOW FOR NOW.
BY THURSDAY EVENING, THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS, SLOWLY DEEPENING AS
THIS OCCURS. RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN ESPECIALLY LOW THE LAST FEW DAYS, THOUGH NOTABLE AGREEMENT
IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES EXIST. THAT SAID, IMPACTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM LARGELY LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. PROBABILITIES OF >1" OF SNOWFALL ONLY MAX AROUND 10-20%
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE HWY 23 CORRIDOR, WITH PROBABILITIES QUICKLY
DROPPING TO <10% ALONG/NORTH OF I-80. LOOKING AT DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE, THIS SHARP CUTOFF IS DRIVEN BY THE AREA BEING LOCATED
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE PRIMARY DEFORMATION AXIS AND IN A MUCH
DRIER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THE POSITIONING OF THE
DEFORMATION AXIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED, THOUGH ANY IMPACTS
TO THE AREA LOOK TO REMAIN LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
BROAD ZONAL FLOW THEN LOOKS TO PREVAIL ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
UPPER LOW, WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ESTABLISHING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO A PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGHS (50S) BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUST WEST WINDS. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH TOP SPEEDS AROUND 25
KNOTS FOR EITHER TERMINAL. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS BY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
TEMPERATURES CLIMB MONDAY AS AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LINGERING DRY AIR WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS TO FALL BELOW
20 PERCENT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. STRONG WINDS ALOFT
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON THE BACKSIDE OF LARGER TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST MIXING HEIGHTS, GENERALLY AROUND
0.5 TO 1KM BUT THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO TAP INTO 20 TO 25 KNOT FLOW
OFF THE SURFACE. MINIMAL TURNING OF WINDS THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
GIVEN THE OVERLAP OF THESE STRONG WINDS AND LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY, MAINLY FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON, DID DECIDE TO ISSUE THE
RED FLAG WARNING. WEAKER WINDS AND FAILING TO MEET CRITICAL
HUMIDITY LEVELS PRECLUDES HEADLINES IN THE OTHER ZONES AT THIS
TIME. HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT APPEARS NOMINAL WITH PEAK VALUES
IN THE 80 TO 100 PERCENT RANGE.
WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT HUMIDITY MINIMUMS
TO 25 PERCENT OR GREATER EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, WILL LIMIT
MENTION TO ELEVATED CONCERNS AND FOCUS ON WEDNESDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL GRAZE THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA. FOR NOW, CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
AMOUNTS IS LOW BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED WETTING
PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ209.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...NMJ
FIRE WEATHER...NMJ
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