344
FXUS63 KLBF 280348
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
948 PM CST MON JAN 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
LOW RH AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ELEVATED CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY DUE
TO LOW RH.
-NEXT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ARRIVES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA, HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TRACK
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
- OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH, DRY WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST MON JAN 27 2025
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THIS RIDGING WILL BRING A STEADY INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WITH
A SURGE OF 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 6 TO 10 C RANGE. THESE WARMER
LOW TO MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE HIGHS TO REACH
THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE PINE RIDGE WHERE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
DRY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS HUMIDITY VALUES DROP AND
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ABOUT THE FIRE
CONCERNS, SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST MON JAN 27 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION OF THE SOUTHWEST US WILL PUSH EASTWARD ON THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN WHERE EXACTLY THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. FOR NOW, THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE CENTRAL
US, LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO HINTS AT THIS BEING A BIT WARMER OF A
SYSTEM, WHICH MAY INDICATE MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. FOR NOW, HAVE LEFT
SOME MENTION OF A BRIEF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE EARLY HOURS
OF THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PUSH OFF THE ROCKIES AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING BEFORE SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE AND
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING, PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE
OVER TO ALL RAIN ON THURSDAY. AREAS OF IMPACT APPEAR TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF I-80 THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EAST,
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM IMPERIAL TO NORTH PLATTE TO
BROKEN BOW MAY BE GRAZED BY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. STAY TUNED TO
THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SOME QUIETER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO
NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY BRINGING SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
START OF THE WEEK. HIGHS NEXT MONDAY WILL ONLY RANGE FROM THE MID
20S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 943 PM CST MON JAN 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 5 KTS
THE REST OF TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE 10-20 KTS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME OCCASIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST MON JAN 27 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE LOWEST
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT
RANGE. IN ADDITION, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WINDOW OF OVERLAP OF THE HIGHEST WINDS AND LOWEST RH
REMAINS SMALL BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND RH
BEGINS TO INCREASE. REGARDLESS, THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH 00Z. RH VALUES WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY WITH
VALUES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME, ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THESE LOWER RH VALUES.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
FIRE WEATHER...KULIK
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