571
FXUS63 KLBF 280949
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
349 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY WINDS, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
(50S), AND DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.
- A SYSTEM CROSSES THE PLAINS THURSDAY, AND COULD LEAD TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME, ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN A DUSTING OR LESS.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN 50S TO NEAR 60)
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT
ON SUNDAY THAT BRINGS A RETURN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
CURRENTLY, CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA, WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA, AND THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS PROMOTING TEMPERATURES
MUCH MORE MILD THAN YESTERDAY MORNING.
FOR TODAY, DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE (CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER FAR
WESTERN MANITOBA) WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTERLY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY, WITH A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS WITH LITTLE IMPACT,
OUTSIDE OF A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT FROM WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PERSISTENT WARM DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AGAIN
BOOST HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
50S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE AREA, AND COMBINED WITH THE BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY, AND SHOULD LARGELY LIMIT
THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. BY
TONIGHT, WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.
SURFACE WINDS TRANSITION SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH, WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS AFTERNOON'S WEAK FRONT DOES LOWER
H85 TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES, AND THEY DO SLIGHTLY REBOUND IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW TOMORROW. THOUGH AS A CONSEQUENCE, HIGHS TOMORROW
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER TOMORROW THAN TODAY. ELEVATED FIRE
CONCERNS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TOMORROW, THOUGH WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WEAKER (10 TO 15MPH) FROM THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, REACHING WESTERN
MISSOURI BY THURSDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW FROM THE DEFORMATION
AXIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS THE PARENT LOW
PASSES WELL OFF TO THE SOUTH. IN FACT, THOUGH PROBABILITIES OF
ANY PRECIPITATION (>0.01") MAXIMIZE AS HIGH AS 60-80% FOR AREAS
NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80, THIS DROPS TO JUST 10-20% FOR >0.10" FOR THE
SAME LOCATIONS. MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAST SOME DOUBT
ON EXPECTED P-TYPES, THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRIMARILY
RAIN OR SNOW. WITH VERY LIMITED QPF EXPECTED, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS, AND LIMITED IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.
FLOW ALOFT THEN TRANSITIONS ZONAL IN THE WAKE OF THURDAY'S SYSTEM,
WITH BROAD TROUGHING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGHS REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE TO ROUND OUT THE WORKWEEK, BEFORE DEEPENING SURFACE PRESSURE
OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS
LEADS TO STRENGTHENING WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL PROMOTE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD, WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, SOME 20 TO
25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR INCREASING FIRE
CONCERNS ON SATURDAY FOR THIS REASON, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY MORNING, ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH SOME THREAT (15-30%) FOR LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 943 PM CST MON JAN 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 5 KTS
THE REST OF TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE 10-20 KTS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME OCCASIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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