060
FXUS63 KLBF 291007
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
407 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE PLAINS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE
MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN, COLD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
- DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH UPPER 40S TO 50S EXPECTED MOST DAYS.
- A RETURN OF WINTER APPEARS PROBABLE NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES
FALL AS BELOW NORMAL VALUES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING REMAINS STAGNANT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SITS OVER ONTARIO AND WILL SETTLE EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND MOVE
OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. FURTHER WEST, A STALLED UPPER-LEVEL LOW
LOCATED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH INCREASING LOCAL INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS, A RESULT OF BEING LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. DRY WEATHER IS AGAIN
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS, WINDS APPEAR TO BE
WEAKER AS WE LOSE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE GREATER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 20 MPH FOR MOST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS WHERE PEAK SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 25 MPH.
THE CUTOFF SOUTHWEST LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS
NORTHEAST. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A STRONG 100+ KNOT H25 JET. AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS,
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE USHERING IN A PLUME OF
GREATER MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO SOME LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
OUR SOUTHWEST BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD WITH MANY
NWP SOLUTIONS DEPICTING TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK. ON THE FAR NORTH EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND, HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINALLY FREEZING WHICH SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO YIELD SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED ICE NUCLEI WHICH RAISES THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEEING FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE LIMITING
FACTOR TO THIS THREAT WOULD BE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL
LIKELY SETTLE RIGHT AROUND 32F WITH COLDER VALUES TO THE NORTH. A
DEGREE +/- CHANGE IN THE FORECAST HAS THE CHANCE TO MAKE DRASTIC
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AND RESULTING IMPACTS. DID LEAN
HEAVILY ON HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES WHEREAS
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE APPEARED TO BE TOO COLD. EVEN WITH THE WARMER
GUIDANCE, A SMALL WINDOW (< 12 HOURS) OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
INCLUDING SNOW AND ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 INVOF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. LATER IN THE MORNING,
INCREASING CONVERGENCE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF A DEEP H7 LOW
WILL LEAD TO STRONGER LIFT AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE
NAM APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS IDEA WITH A RATHER BULLISH
OPINION ON A MESOSCALE SNOW BAND SETTING UP. THIS SOLUTION APPEARS
TO BE GAINING SOME TRACTION AS INDIVIDUAL HREF MEMBERS ARE BEGINNING
TO SHOW A SIMILAR OUTPUT. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY. HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS THREAT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND FOR NOW POPS REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE
FOR OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES. EVEN WITH THIS MORE OPTIMISTIC OUTLOOK,
FORCING SHOULD QUICKLY WANE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR MOST IN THE EVENING AND ALL BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR SET TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S AND 50S YET AGAIN FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD THIS HIGHER INTENSITY MESOSCALE BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MATERIALIZE, FORECAST HIGHS WILL NEED TO BE REDUCED.
AS FOR QPF, MOST LOCATIONS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED 0.10" THOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THE THREAT OF THIS MESOSCALE BAND
COULD LEAD TO MARKED INCREASES IN QPF BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE
AND PLACEMENT REMAINS LOW.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK..DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY AS UPPER-
LEVEL LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW-AMPLITUDE
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BY LATE FRIDAY AND NEAR-ZONAL FLOW WILL
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL DROP A COOL FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. TIMING OF THIS APPEARS TO BE LATE SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE CASTS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON PRECISE TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES AND LEAD TO A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD ON FORECAST
TEMPERATURES. MILD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT
SPREAD IN NBM PERCENTILE VALUES, NOTABLY THE INNER-QUARTILE SPREAD,
IS 15 TO 20 DEGF. SO CONFIDENCE IN HOW SUNDAY PLAYS OUT IS LOW AND
LARGE CHANGES WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS REMAIN PROBABLE. WITH THIS
FRONT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND WILL LIKELY
FAVOR AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HINTS
AT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FAVORING THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER. SOME DETERMINISTIC NWP SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE GREATER IMPACTS
WITH HEAVIER QPF AND SNOW SO THIS WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MONITOR
CLOSELY. BEHIND THE FRONT, REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE SOUTH AND BRING ANOTHER STRETCH OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER FOR
THE REGION. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF
THE 30S FOR EVEN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE
LATEST CPC OUTLOOK WITH 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS
SHOWING INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FOR
NOW, THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD DOES NOT APPEAR LIKE IT WILL MATCH THE
COLD STRETCH WE EXPERIENCED JANUARY 20-21 BUT EVEN SO IT'LL BE A
NOTABLE CHANGE FROM RECENT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF
20-25 KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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