688
FXUS63 KLBF 292337
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
537 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT, MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWESTERN INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN WITH A SMALL WINDOW FOR A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW ARE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
- MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
SUNDAY BASED ON FRONTAL TIMING.
- MUCH COOLER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND AN INCREASED THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW IN
NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA.
A TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA.
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WAS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE
AND WAS ORIENTED FROM EASTERN TEXAS NORTH INTO NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA. WEST OF THE LOW, RIDGING EXTENDED UP THE WEST COAST OF
THE CONUS INTO SOUTHWESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW, CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND
LABRADOR NEWFOUNDLAND. A TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON,
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE, SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE LIFTED A BROAD SHIELD OF CLOUD COVER AS FAR
NORTH AS NORTWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTH AND SKIES WERE CLEAR AS OF MID AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 PM CT RANGED FROM 47 DEGREES AT GORDON TO
56 DEGREES AT OGALLALA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM. OVERNIGHT, THE H5 LOW OVER THE
DESERT SW WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FEATURE, A LEAD SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL LIFT FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TOWARD 12Z
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE THREAT APPROACHING
THE I80 CORRIDOR AFTER 3 AM CT. AS THE H5 LOW TRACKS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ON THURSDAY, DEFORMATION WILL INCREASE ON THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. AS FOR THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION,
ALMOST ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE NAM12 AND 3KM NAM ARE MUCH DRIER TOMORROW ACROSS THE AREA
WITH LIMITED QPF. THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER AND DEVELOPS A NICE
DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
INTO DEUEL, PORTIONS OF GARDEN AND KEITH COUNTIES. THE BETTER
THAN 1/2 INCH OF QPF AS DEPICTED WITH THIS MODEL THURSDAY
MORNING WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC FROM A WINTER PERSPECTIVE AS IT
COULD LEAD TO 3 + INCHES OF SNOW LOCALLY. AGAIN, THIS MODEL IS
ON THE FRINGE AND IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE HRRR, GFS, ECMWF,
CANADIAN, AND THE LATEST EC, GFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC
FORECAST AND NBM FORECAST. WHAT IS CONCERNING HOWEVER, IS THE
DEGREE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH DEVELOPS FOR AROUND A 6 HR
PERIOD THURSDAY MORNING IN THE BEFORE MENTIONED AREA. THE NAM12
HAS THIS PEGGED WITH THE ENHANCED AREA OF QPF. THE GFS SOLN HAS
THIS AREA OF LIFT AS WELL, JUST NOT THE QPF, AND HAS MORE DRIER
AIR INCORPORATED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE, THE NAM12 AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARMER WEDGE
OF AIR ALOFT WORKING INTO SW NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPS NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS IS A DECENT SETUP
FOR LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION PARTICULARLY IN THE 3 AM TO
9-10 AM WINDOW THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE LOW DEGREE OF QPF IN
THE FORECAST, HAVE DECIDED AGAINST WINTER HEADLINES AND WILL HIT
THE THREAT IN THE PATHFINDER CHAT WITH NDOR AND ADVISE THEM OF
THE THREAT FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT AND A LOW
CONFIDENCE THREAT FOR SNOW MAINLY WEST OF THE I76/I80 SPLIT
THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
40S ACROSS THE AREA, EFFECTIVELY ENDING THE THREAT FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTH AND EASTERN CWA INTO THE MID EVENING
HOURS AS THE H5 LOW ENTERS EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
BEST DEFORMATION INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY EVENING.
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
LOWER 20S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING H5 LOW THURSDAY NIGHT, LOW AMPLITUDE
ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA LEADING TO
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MIDDLE 50S FROM CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN THE
NORTHEAST ARE A RESULT OF A WEAK BACK DOOR COOL FRONT AND
NORTHERLY WINDS WHICH IMPACT NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. BY SATURDAY,
THIS FEATURE IS FORCED NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
H85 TEMPS REACHING 10C IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH GOOD MIXING NOTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WESTERLY
WINDS APPROACHING 20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WE
WILL PROBABLY SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT MIN RH FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS FOR
AROUND 25 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF MIN RH
SATURDAY TRENDS DOWNWARD, WE MAY NEED RED FLAG WARNING
HEADLINES. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND, THE MID RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EITHER
SUNDAY OR MONDAY. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT,
WHICH WILL LEAD TO MUCH COLDER READINGS ON SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
THE CANADIAN AND EC SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE "WEAKER" FRONT AND
HOLD OF THEIR COLDEST AIR INTO THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
THE LATEST NBM SOLN HAS A HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD WITH ITS HIGHS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NBM GUIDANCE HAS A 23 DEGREE SPREAD IN
ITS HIGHS SUNDAY (25TH-75TH%ILE) AND 17 DEGREE SPREAD ON MONDAY
FOR NORTH PLATTE. THAT BEING SAID, THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN
THE EXTENDED IS LOW CONFIDENCE. FINALLY, THERE IS A SMALL THREAT
FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERN
FORECAST AREA. THE FORCING FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IN NATURE AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING
AS THE FORCING IS POST FRONTAL AND EITHER OVER THE DAKOTAS (EC)
OR NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA (GFS). AGAIN, LIKE TEMPERATURES, THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TOMORROW MORNING,
WHICH MAY BRING A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES RETURN ABOVE FREEZING BY MID
MORNING, TURNING PRECIPITATION INTO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. AT THIS
TIME, MINOR VISIBILITY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
BEING LARGELY DRIVEN BY CEILINGS. AS SHOWERS MOVE OUT BY THE
AFTERNOON, CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR ACROSS THE REGION.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...RICHIE
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