142
FXUS63 KLBF 301136
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
536 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A THREAT FOR A GLAZE OF ICE AND A DUSTING OF SNOW REMAINS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING, BEFORE
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN 50S TO 60S) PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH INCREASING FIRE CONCERNS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN WEST WINDS ARE STRONGEST.
- A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY, BRINGING A
RETURN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
CURRENTLY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN COLORADO
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THAT SAID,
THIS PRECIPITATION HAS LARGELY WANED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH SUNRISE. ALOFT, A DEEP UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO, AND IS SLOWLY EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND
THE THREAT FOR BOTH FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW THIS MORNING, IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW. THE PRIMARY AXIS
OF PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE JUST SOUTH OF I-70
IN KANSAS, JUST AHEAD OF A SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT AND IN THE
DEFORMATION AXIS OF THE PARENT H7 LOW ALOFT. THIS DEFORMATION
AXIS SHOULD PIVOT NORTH AND WEST EARLY THIS MORNING, REACHING
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS IS WHERE CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO
QUICKLY WANE WITH RESPECT TO BOTH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND
TYPE. GUIDANCE WIDELY VARIES WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE, WITH
ANYWHERE FROM WIDELY ISOLATED TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 83. ISENTROPIC ASCENT LOOKS MORE THAN
ADEQUATE FOR THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE, WITH THE BULK OF DISCREPANCIES TIED TO
THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. OF
CONCERN, THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF MOISTURE WITH THE APPROACH OF
THIS WAVE WILL INITIALLY OVERRUN SUBFREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
CURRENTLY) AND LEAD TO SOME THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
FREEZING RAIN AT ONSET WHERE SATURATION CAN OCCUR. THIS COULD
LEAD TO A GLAZING OF ICE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS MORNING, WITH IMPACTS TO AREA ROADS POSSIBLE. SOME DOUBT
DOES EXIST WITH THE DEGREE OF ICING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALOFT, AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HOVERING NEAR FREEZING. GUIDANCE HAS AT LEAST COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO ANY SWITCHOVER TO SNOW, LARGELY
KEEPING THIS CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THESE AREAS BEING IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT H7 LOW, AND IN A CORRIDOR OF BETTER
DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT. THOUGH LIGHT SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE
NEAR/WEST OF HWY 61, CONFIDENCE IN ANY APPRECIABLE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO WANE.
ANY LINGERING IMPACTS FROM ANY ICING OR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED, AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, THE DRY SLOT
SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ENDING
PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY THIS EVENING.
THOUGH LIGHT ICING IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, HAVE DECIDED TO
FOREGO ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WITH THE EXPECTED SHORT
DURATION OF THE EVENT. INSTEAD, WILL MONITOR FOR SHORT DURATION
IMPACTS AND SHOULD CONFIDENCE GROW, WILL COVER WITH SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS LATER THIS MORNING.
DRY CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, WITH BROAD WARM
ADVECTION RETURNING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL QUICKLY
BOOST HIGHS BACK TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S,
AND COULD LEAD TO SOME INCREASE IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THAT
SAID, WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MILES PER HOUR FROM THE
SOUTH TOMORROW, AND SHOULD TEMPER THE THREAT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
BROAD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES ALOFT AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EJECTING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DRAG A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
AND LEAD TO INCREASING WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. THIS
STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION WILL AGAIN BOOST HIGHS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO 60S (~20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE). WILL REALLY HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASED FIRE CONCERNS
CLOSELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WEST
WINDS, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AND DRY CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY,
THOUGH LARGE DISCREPANCIES STILL REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE LOCALLY. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS,
THIS WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON HARD TO PIN DOWN FOR
NOW, WITH 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE MAXT SPREAD ON THE ORDER OF 10-
15F. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO MARK THE RETURN OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY AND MIDDLE NEXT WEEK, WITH EVEN
WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST A COUPLE
SHORTWAVES ARE ALSO PROGGED TO EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEXT WEEK IN THE BROAD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, WITH SOME THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION LOCALLY. AT THIS TIME, THE GREATEST WINDOW FOR
SNOW LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AS UPSLOPE EASTERLY
FLOW ESTABLISHES AS THE COLD AIRMASS BACKS AGAINST THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS REMAINS LOW, THE
GREATEST RISK TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS TO RESIDE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL CHANCES (15-30%) PERSIST
INTO MIDWEEK NORTH OF I-80, THOUGH CONFIDENCE WANES WITH THIS
BEING DRIVEN BY SUBTLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
MVFR CEILINGS EXTEND ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA,
INCLUDING THE KLBF TERMINAL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL EXIST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING,
ENDING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT KLBF FROM 15Z-20Z.
MVFR CEILINGS AT KLBF SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z. MAINLY SKC-
FEW250 AT KVTN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS AT KLBF AND KVTN WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AT BELOW 10KT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...ROBERG
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