506
FXUS63 KLBF 031739
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1139 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON TUESDAY. WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING TRAVEL.
- DAMAGING NORTH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 TO 65 MILES PER
HOUR ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TUESDAY.
- AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SNOW IS LIKELY (60-70%) THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL REVOLVE AROUND A THREAT
FOR DANGEROUS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.
CURRENTLY, BROAD WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA, AS BROAD
LEE CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. DEWPOINTS HAVE
QUICKLY SURGED INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA,
WITH INCREASING STRATUS AND PATCHY ADVECTION FOG. THIS STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY, ALONG WITH INCREASING
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN ALOFT. THE
PERSISTENT CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS SOMEWHAT COOLER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY, THOUGH STILL LARGELY IN THE 50S AMID THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME.
BY TONIGHT, A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS OUT OF THE ROCKIES, WITH AN ASSOCIATED DEEP SURFACE LOW
BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE EAST NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN KANSAS.
INITIALLY, PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE
FORM OF RAIN BY LATE THIS EVENING, AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW FOR
EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS INITIAL PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT, AS MUCAPE CLIMBS TO ~500-750J/KG AMID STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES ALOFT. THOUGH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE DEFINITELY POSSIBLE
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONGER STORMS AS SHEAR
REMAINS VERY MEAGER ALOFT.
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE SURFACE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR SUNRISE. AS THIS OCCURS, A POWERFUL COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST, WITH RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT, AS BOTH PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW AND WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHEN FROM THE NORTH. THE EXACT
SPEED OF CHANGEOVER FROM WEST TO EAST REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE EVEN
WITHIN ~24-36HRS OF ONSET ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS LARGELY TIED TO
DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT, ALONG WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR
TO EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. LUCKILY, IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT THE TRANSITION WILL BE VERY CLEAN FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA, AND A THREAT FOR ANY PROLONGED MIXED P-TYPES IS VERY LOW.
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO A MORE
ROBUST DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, THOUGH REMAIN AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO WHERE PRECISELY
THIS WILL OCCUR. WITHIN THIS BAND, THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN PURELY
CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL WILL EXIST, WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND A
DEEP RESERVOIR OF NEGATIVE EPV JUST UPSTREAM OF THE EVENTUAL
MESOSCALE BAND. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF THUNDERSNOW
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE P-TYPE TRANSITION
LINE. IT IS WITHIN THESE MESOSCALE BANDS WHERE SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD
EASILY EXCEED 1"/HR, AND WILL BE OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE OF NO CONCERN WITH
THIS SYSTEM, WITH A DEEP GULF MOISTURE TAP, AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING ANOMALOUS WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT (EXCEEDING THE 90TH
PERCENTILE CLIMO) IN THE WRAPAROUND COLD CONVEYOR BELT. THE LARGEST
POINT OF LINGERING UNCERTAINTY SNOW WISE IS TIED TO THE TRACK OF THE
DRY SLOT, AS GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH EXACTLY HOW THIS EVOLVES. JUST
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN THIS WILL HAVE DRASTIC IMPACTS ON AMOUNTS
LOCALLY, AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. IN ALL, WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WHEREVER MESOSCALE BANDING SETS UP. EVEN WITH LESSER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS, BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
AS FOR WINDS, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PAINT A VERY ROBUST SIGNAL FOR
DAMAGING (60-65+ MPH) WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. ALOFT, VERY
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW, WITH H85 FLOW (50-55KTS) EVEN APPROACHING
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUMS FOR EARLY MARCH. AS MECHANICAL MIXING
OCCURS AND TAPS INTO THIS ROBUST FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE,
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM
WEST TO EAST INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON,
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 60-65MPH ARE EXPECTED, AND THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH FALLING SNOW TO CREATE DANGEROUS WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IN ANY MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS. BY
TUESDAY EVENING, THE UPPER LOW FURTHER STRENGTHENS AS IT
PROGRESSES INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI, AND H85 FLOW STRENGTHENS
EVEN FURTHER (~60KTS) ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IT APPEARS A
WINDOW WILL EXIST TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
EVEN HIGHER END GUSTS, POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 65-70MPH TO
DEVELOP NEAR AND EAST OF HWY 83. THOUGH FALLING SNOW LOOKS TO
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN THIS PERIOD AS PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST, ANY PREVIOUS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO BLOW AND DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH INITIAL SLRS
LOOK TO BE RATHER HEAVY AND WET (7-9:1), THEY DO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENT AND NEAR ~11-13:1 BY
THE END OF OF THE SNOWFALL. SOME THREAT FOR EXISTING SNOWFALL TO
BE LOFTED BY THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST WELL AFTER FALLING
SNOW ENDS, AND THE BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO NOON
CST WEDNESDAY TO ENCOMPASS THIS THREAT.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA, AND ANY LINGERING
BLOWING SNOW ISSUES SHOULD QUICKLY END BY LATE AFTERNOON. SKIES ALSO
CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
AREA, AND THE INCREASED SUN ANGLE OF EARLY MARCH WILL BEING THE
SNOWMELT PROCESS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
THE LULL IN PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BRIEF ACROSS THE AREA, AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTS EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, THOUGH EXACT
AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN FOR NOW. WINDS LOOK TO BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH
THIS ROUND OF SNOWFALL, AND BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS LOOK TO REMAIN
MUCH MORE LIMITED. SNOW PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE FINALLY
ENDING FRIDAY EVENING. UPPER RIDGING THEN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY 2
MODIFYING BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST GOING FORWARD AS IT PERTAINS TO LOW
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE LBF TAF SITE. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THE CLOUDS ALREADY AS UPPER PV
ANOMALY ENCROACHES ON A MOIST LOW LAYER IN THE SOUTHWEST.
BELIEVE IFR CONDITIONS AT LBF WILL BREAK FOR A TIME BUT WILL BE
QUICK TO RETURN BY EVENING AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF UPPER
LOW DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT CLASSIC ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE SETS UP WITH TSRA INCLUDED IN THE LBF TAF, THOUGH
LIMITED AT KVTN. RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHWEST KS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT BOTH
SITES PRIOR TO 15Z TUESDAY AND WITH VERY STRONG WINDS
VISIBILITIES WILL DROP BELOW 1SM VERY QUICKLY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ TUESDAY TO NOON CST
/11 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ004>006-008-009-022>026-035>037-
056>059-069-070-094.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ007-010-027>029-038-071.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...STOPPKOTTE
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