909
FXUS63 KLBF 040028
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
628 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO POTENTIALLY LIFE-
THREATENING TRAVEL.
- DAMAGING NORTH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 TO 65 MILES PER
HOUR ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TUESDAY.
- AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SNOW IS LIKELY (60-70%) THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN UTAH
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
STRATUS EXTENDED OVER SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WHERE
DEWPOINTS RANGED NEAR 45 DEGREES AND PATCHY DRIZZLE ALSO
OBSERVED. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OCCURRING IN SOUTHEAST
WYOMING INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DANGEROUS
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 65
MPH.
TONIGHT, AN ELONGATED, NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND MAY REMAIN AS DEEP AS
986MB AS FORECAST BY THE GFS. CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A WELL DEFINED DEFORMATION BAND ON THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO, FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTH AND BECOME WINDY ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS LATE.
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
SANDHILLS TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
AS ALL RAIN.
TUESDAY, AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS, VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH A RAIN SNOW LINE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION DROPS SOUTH AND EAST QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING, WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE EXPECTED TO REACH A NORTH
PLATTE THROUGH AINSWORTH LINE BY MID MORNING AND AN O'NEILL
THROUGH BROKEN BOW LINE BY NOON CDT. THE GFS AND ECMWF EACH
DEVELOP A WELL DEFINED DEFORMATION BAND, GENERALLY FROM IMPERIAL
THROUGH AINSWORTH, WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST WITH
THE LOCATION. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WHERE THIS MAIN DEFORMATION
DEVELOPS, AND HOW WIDE IT WILL BECOME. THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THIS SYSTEM MAY MAKE THE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW NARROWER, YET
MORE INTENSE WITH HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES WITHIN THE DEFORMATION BAND FROM
IMPERIAL THROUGH AINSWORTH, WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS BACK TO
THE WEST. THE AREA OF HIGHER UNCERTAINTY WILL BE TO THE EAST,
WHERE SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HEAVY SNOWFALL.
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT
FORECAST TONIGHT AS NEW MODEL DATA ARRIVES.
VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUST TO 65 MPH, COMBINED WITH
FALLING SNOW AND SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. EVEN LOCATIONS
WHICH RECEIVE AN INCH OF SNOW, SHOULD EXPECT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE EVENING
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83, ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S OVERNIGHT, GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER 50 MPH EARLY EVENING WILL LESSEN TO 30 TO 40 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL, SOME BLOWING SNOW IS LIKELY TO LINGER.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE
MORNING, THEN DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON. SUNNY SKIES, WITH HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 40S WEST AND LOW TO MID 30S EAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM WITH THIS SYSTEM,
WITH 60 TO 70 POPS AND COLD AIR SUFFICIENT FOR ALL SNOW. COLDER
AIR WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH IN THE UPPER 30S. SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY LOOKS DRY AND WARMER AS UPPER RIDGING RETURN TO THE
REGION, WITH HIGHS BY SUNDAY 55 TO 60.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CEILINGS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO PARTS OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO
MUCH OF TUESDAY. NORTH WINDS GUSTING OVER 50 KTS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ TUESDAY TO NOON CST
/11 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ004>006-008-009-022>026-035>037-
056>059-069-070-094.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ007-010-027>029-038-071.
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...STOPPKOTTE
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