517
FXUS63 KLBF 041121
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
521 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO POTENTIALLY LIFE-
THREATENING TRAVEL.
- DAMAGING NORTH WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 60 MILES PER HOUR ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TUESDAY.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA, THOUGH AMOUNTS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
IS OVER NORTHWEST KS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PLUMES FOR THE PACIFIC AND THE GULF
BEING WRAPPED INTO THE CIRCULATION AND BRINGING 90TH PERCENTILE
INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT VALUES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. RADAR RETURNS ALSO CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM AS THE MOISTURE
COMBINES WITH ROBUST FORCING FROM SIGNIFICANT MIDLEVEL
DEFORMATION AND FGEN, WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING FROM EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-80. THUS FAR PTYPE IS LIQUID BUT EXPECT
A COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR ADVECTING AND DYNAMIC COOLING WILL
RESULT IN A FAIRLY QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED QPF FURTHER TO THE EAST BUT ANTICIPATE A PERSISTENT
DEFORMATION BAND WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AND EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS THIS NARROW BAND WILL SUPPORT LOCALIZED BURSTS OF
SNOWFALL WITH RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW TOTALS TO EQUAL OR EXCEED 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES. THE
DIFFERENCE OF A FEW MILES WILL BE SIGNIFICANT IN DETERMINING
EXACTLY WHERE THE SNOWFALL WILL BE MAXIMIZED. CURRENT ENSEMBLES
ARE INDICATING THE BAND WILL BE NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF HWY 83
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECISE LOCATION IS NOT HIGH. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY HEADING FURTHER WESTWARD INTO
THE PANHANDLE.
WIND DYNAMICS ARE ESSENTIALLY MAXED OUT ABOVE THE 99TH
PERCENTILE AS THE AXIS OF THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS 50 TO 60KT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL MIX DOWN AND
CREATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY STRONG WINDS SPREADING FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF
60MPH OR MORE WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND 70MPH ESPECIALLY
EAST OF HWY 83 LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND EXPECTATION
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF HWY 83, THE POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW TO CREATE VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO
SLICK ROADS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITY IS HIGH. AT THIS TIME
WILL MAINTAIN THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA. WILL MONITOR SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND LATER
GUIDANCE CLOSELY TO SEE IF ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES
ARE WARRANTED LATER THIS MORNING.
SNOW DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ANY LINGERING FLURRIES MOVING OUT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER
WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH AND PEAK WINDS
EAST OF HWY 83 WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH IMPROVED WITH
DIMINISHED WINDS THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING A GOOD BIT
BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY EAST OF HWY 83.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER LOW
OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT MID LEVEL
FORCING IS ROBUST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS TRENDING UP. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A
BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE FOR 4 INCHES OR MORE OF ACCUMULATION
MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 AND WEST OF HWY 83 WITH LOWER AMOUNTS
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THEREAFTER, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN US WITH A WARMING TREND TO
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
WIDESPREAD IFR/LOCALLY LIFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW BY LATE MORNING, AND WILL LEAD TO
VERY LOW VISIBILITY WITH VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS. NORTH WINDS
GUST AS HIGH AS 50 TO 60KTS THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING LATE TONIGHT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ004>006-008-009-022>026-035>037-056>059-069-070-094.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ007-010-027>029-038-071.
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...BROWN
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