818
FXUS63 KLBF 051113
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
513 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL EAST
OF HWY 83.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FROM
THE SANDHILLS INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
- DRY WEATHER WITH A NOTABLE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND ENOUGH SNOW TO CAUSE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE AREA EAST OF HWY 83 IS MOVING INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND EAST OF HWY 83 THOUGH THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX TODAY WITH THE CORE OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD. WHILE WINDS ARE STILL QUITE
GUSTY, GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 55MPH HAVE BEEN SPARSE THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS AND BY DAYBREAK THE PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING
55MPH WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT. GIVEN THE TRENDS AND
EXPECTATION FOR DIMINISHING WINDS HAVE CANCELLED THE REMAINING
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THERE WILL BE
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH READINGS NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES WEST OF
HWY 83, THOUGH READINGS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FURTHER TO THE
EAST OUT NEAR HWY 183 AND BEYOND WITH TEMPS MAXING OUT ONLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WILL ALREADY BE SEEING CLOUDS INCREASING
FROM THE WEST AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN US, DRIVING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A BAND OF GOOD MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION AND FGEN FORCING ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
LOW ACROSS NEBRASKA, WITH A PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE BEING
DRAWN NORTHWARD AND PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO THE
90TH PERCENTILE THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT THIS
WILL START TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING, THEN SPREADING ACROSS
THE REST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING ON FRIDAY. PTYPE AT THE OUTSET
WILL FAVOR SNOW THOUGH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR PLAIN RAIN WILL
DOMINATE EAST OF HWY 83 AS PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A
CROSSOVER FROM EQUAL CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW TO PREDOMINATELY
RAIN FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY LATE MORNING ONWARD EAST OF HWY 83 AS
TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S PTYPE OF SNOW WILL BECOME
DOMINANT AND COINCIDE WITH THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING AND
PRECIPITATION RATES. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER THAN A
50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE
GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 2 AND WEST OF HWY 83, WITH A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR 2 INCHES OR MORE EXTENDING SOUTH TO INTERSTATE 80.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30MPH. THIS MAY CREATE SOME
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND AREAS OF POOR VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ANTICIPATION OF THE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHERE THE
HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF
THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK,
ALONG WITH A NOTABLE WARMING TREND. BY MONDAY TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL RISE INTO THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND SUPPORT A BETTER THAN
EVEN CHANCE FOR HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 65 DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-80 AND ONLY A BIT COOLER TO THE NORTH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING, WITH VFR THEN EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30KTS EXPECTED. WINDS THEN
WEAKEN NEAR SUNSET, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ004-094.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ023>025.
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...BROWN
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