834
FXUS63 KLBF 052115
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
315 PM CST WED MAR 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACUMULATIONS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
- DRY WEATHER WITH A NOTABLE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED MAR 5 2025
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE A WINTER SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.S. TONIGHT WITH A
CLOSED LOW WITH AND CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL CA AND
SOUTHWESTERN NV. WELL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA,
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS. AN H7 TROUGH BECOMES WEST-EAST ORIENTED ON THURSDAY,
WITH THE ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW TO MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST NE 06Z
FRIDAY AND INTO SOUTHEAST NE 18Z FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL SET UP
A BAND OF GOOD MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE LOW ACROSS NEBRASKA. PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE
290-305K SURFACE CONTINUES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY
DOWNGLIDE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
H85 WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BECOMING
NORTHEAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY. PWATS
PEAK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE A HALF INCH BY EARLY THURSDAY,
SIGNALING AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL SANDHILLS THURSDAY MORNING WILL
INCREASE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND
ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SNOW WILL DIMINISH AND END FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PTYPE AT THE OUTSET
WILL FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. BY
THURSDAY EVENING, AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S, SNOW WILL BECOME DOMINANT. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS
A 60 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 INCHES
OR MORE ACROSS SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY AND A 50 TO 70 PERCENT
CHANCE ALONG HIGHWAY 2 AND 91, EAST TO LOUP COUNTY, THEN NORTH
INTO ROCK AND KEYA PAHA COUNTY. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM
THIS AND OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT, A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY, WITH A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, NOT INCLUDING
BOYD, HOLT GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTY. STILL THESE COUNTIES
COULD SEE 3 TO 5 INCHES, AS PROBABILITIES OF 3 INCHES OR GREATER
IS 50 TO 90 PERCENT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THIS MAY
CREATE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND AREAS OF POOR
VISIBILITY THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED MAR 5 2025
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL MOVE EASTWARD
OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOW 40S
SATURDAY AND LOW 50S SUNDAY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS FROM EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AND NEW SNOW COVER. HIGHS MONDAY TO REACH THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S. MAY SEE A WEAK FRONT DROP SOUTH ON TUESDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. AN UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
COULD SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS, BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CST WED MAR 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST UNTIL 21Z THIS AFTERNOON AT
KLBF, WITH GUSTS OF 23KT EXPECTED. WINDS THEN WEAKEN NEAR
SUNSET, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, THEN LIGHT EASTERLY
THURSDAY MORNING. A CHANCE FOR -RA AT KVTN TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD NOT INCLUDED ATTM.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY
FOR NEZ004-094.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ005-006-008-009-023>027.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...ROBERG
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