105
FXUS63 KLBF 061740
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1140 AM CST THU MAR 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS (6"+) ARE EXPECTED FOR
AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 TODAY INTO TOMORROW AND
WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. GUSTY EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD ALSO LEAD TO A THREAT FOR BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.
- SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DECREASE WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT FROM HIGHWAY
2, WITH AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-80.
- TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUND BACK TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE (HIGHS
IN 60S TO LOW 70S) EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS COULD LEAD TO INCREASING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU MAR 6 2025
CURRENTLY, BROAD LEE CYCLOGENESIS PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO,
WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO CROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY
THIS MORNING. THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TOMORROW, AS THEY EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS.
FOR TODAY, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING, AND WILL REMAIN POSITIONED NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. SOME SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THIS FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, THOUGH
THIS WILL LEAD TO NO IMPACTS. TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
STRENGTHENING BROAD EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL ASCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE NORTH OF HWY 2 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. AS
FOR P-TYPE, EXPECTING INITIAL RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH AMPLE BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND THE DIURNAL CYCLE
FAVORING LIQUID P-TYPE. BY LATE THIS EVENING, THE SURFACE LOW
WILL BEGIN TO EJECT EASTWARD INTO FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS, WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS
LEADS TO INCREASING COLD ADVECTION, AND WILL PROMOTE
PRECIPITATION BECOMING PREDOMINATELY SNOW NEAR AND AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING. ALOFT, THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO EJECT EAST INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, WITH A QUICKLY CONSTRICTING THE MID-LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT. AS A CONSEQUENCE, FGEN INCREASES AND BECOMES
THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR SNOWFALL VERSUS THE EARLIER BROAD UPSLOPE
REGIME. AS A RESULT, SNOW RATES WILL QUICKLY INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA, WITH THIS FGEN BAND TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN FACT, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP ASCENT
FAVORABLY COLOCATED WITH THE DGZ ALOFT, AND THIS SHOULD PROMOTE
EFFICIENT SNOWFALL RATES. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A GROWING
PERCENTAGE OF HIGH-RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS INDICATING >1"/HR
SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN BANDED SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS PERIOD IS WHEN BOTH ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS
SHOULD MAXIMIZE ACROSS THE AREA. TO FURTHER ADD TO POTENTIAL
ISSUES, WINDS DO REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST (20-30
MPH) ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTWARD MOVING SURFACE
LOW, AND THIS COULD LEAD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING CONCERNS AS
WELL. SNOW RATIOS QUICKLY INCREASE TONIGHT AS RATES ARE
MAXIMIZED, WITH RATIOS CLIMBING AS HIGH AS ~12-15:1 OVERNIGHT.
THIS COULD FURTHER EXACERBATE BLOWING/DRIFTING CONCERNS AS SNOW
RATIOS INCREASE.
THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW LOOK TO OCCUR FOR
AREAS NORTH OF HWY 2, AND ESPECIALLY NEARER TO THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR.
THIS AREA IS WHERE BOTH THE INITIAL BROAD UPSLOPE SHOULD PERSIST, AS
WELL AS THE LONGEST RESIDENCE TIME UNDER ANY HEAVIER BANDED
SNOWFALL. IN TOTAL, A WIDE SWATH OF 6-9" IS EXPECTED ALONG/NORTH OF
HWY 2, WITH AMOUNTS APPROACHING 12" ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
CHERRY AND EASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTIES. AMOUNTS LOOK TO QUICKLY DROP
OFF WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT, AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA REMAIN
DRY MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY SOUTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. IN
ADDITION, ANY SNOW BANDS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH AREAS SOUTH OF
HWY 2, MINIMIZING THE DURATION OF HIGHER SNOW RATES. AMOUNTS DROP TO
~2-5" SOUTH OF HWY 2 AND NORTH OF I-80, DROPPING TO LESS THAN 1"
ALONG THE HWY 6 CORRIDOR. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS
NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 2, AND DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SNOWFALL QUICKLY ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS SKIES CLEAR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SPILLS INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. ADD IN FRESH SNOW, AND TEMPERATURES
COULD BOTTOM OUT EVEN COOLER THAN FORECAST. THAT SAID, WESTERLY
WINDS DO LOOK TO ESTABLISH TOWARDS SUNRISE AND THIS WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WILL OFFSET THE EFFICIENT COOLING SOMEWHAT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU MAR 6 2025
BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THIS
WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY MODERATING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET FOR AREAS THAT SEE THE GREATEST
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS, THOUGH INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE WARM ADVECTION AND AN EVER HIGHER SUN ANGLE WILL
PROMOTE AMPLE SNOWMELT THIS WEEKEND.
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MONDAY, AS RIDGE
BREAKDOWN BEGINS AS UPPER TROUGHING BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BOOST HIGHS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, ALONG WITH PUSHING HUMIDITY
VALUES INTO THE 20-30% RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS FOR INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE LIMITED SNOWFALL/MOISTURE ACCUMULATIONS TODAY
AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY,
THOUGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE (HIGHS IN
MIDDLE 50S TO NEAR 60) INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE AREA
LOOKS TO REMAIN LARGELY PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE FRONT
HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BEFORE THE APPROACH OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST THU MAR 6 2025
ACTIVE AVIATION WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THIS AFTERNOON LASTING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW AND RAIN WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA IMPACTING KVTN.
RAIN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW BY THIS EVENING AND SPREAD
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO SEE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 WITH VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY DUE TO FALLING SNOW AND INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES
OFF INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR NEZ004-094.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO
6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ FRIDAY FOR NEZ005>010-023>027.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ TO 6 PM CST
/5 PM MST/ FRIDAY FOR NEZ022-028-029-035>038.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...KULIK
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