134
FXUS63 KLBF 062133
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
333 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
- TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TEMPERATURES REACHING 70 DEGREES MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE HEAVY
SNOWFALL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SATURATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INITIAL SNOWFLAKES WILL
LIKELY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. AS
TEMPERATURES COOL LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS SNOW
WILL START TO ACCUMULATE.
AN FGEN BAND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. STRONG LIFT IN THE
DENDRITIC LAYER WILL LAST THROUGH THE THE LATE EVENING,
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO
NOT SUGGEST STRONG WINDS ALOFT, SO FRACTURING OF DENDRITES WILL
BE MINIMAL AND SHOULD NOT IMPEDE SNOW RATIONS. DID KEEP SNOW
RATIOS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 2 HIGHER, WITH HIGHEST ACROSS
SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES WHERE 15:1 RATIOS ARE EXPECTED.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY PROBABILISTIC MODELS. DID KEEP RATIOS A
LITTLE LOWER GENERALLY 12:1 OR 13:1 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY, AND
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET AS COLD AS ANTICIPATED. WHERE THE FGEN
BAND SETS UP THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 8 INCHES OR GREATER,
WHICH IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO SET UP ACROSS SHERIDAN AND CHERRY
COUNTIES, BUT THE LAST MODEL RUN OF A FEW MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
THE FGEN BAND NORTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA SO WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR WHERE THE BAND SETS
UP TONIGHT. EXPECTED TO 1" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL, WHICH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER
SNOWFALL WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 9PM TONIGHT THROUGH 9AM CT.
THE FARTHER SOUTH THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH, WHERE WE WILL SEE LESS
SNOWFALL. CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST THAT ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHWARD THERE IS A 50% OR GREATER LIKELIHOOD THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE 32 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ONLY BRIEFLY DROPPING BELOW FREEZING,
AROUND A 6 HOUR PERIOD, THUS THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY
FALL AS RAIN WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE BRIEF PERIOD IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE THERE WILL BE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.
HOWEVER, ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THE SNOW RATIOS DURING
THAT TIMEFRAME WILL BE AROUND 8:1 OR LESS THUS GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF LOWER SNOW RATIOS AND TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN 2 INCHES, GENERALLY I-80 SOUTHWARD.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD, SNOWFALL WILL END FROM THE WESTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON TO THE EASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
AS FAR AS WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM, SOME IMPACTS WITH BLOWING SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE, AND COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY, BUT IMPACTS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY LOCALIZED AS EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH NORTH OF HWY 2 WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL
WILL BE. SOUTH OF HWY 2 WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH, WITH
GUST UP 25 MPH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
A LOW WILL DIG ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND, AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS. THE RIDGE WILL EXPAND AND MOVE EASTWARD AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL BOOST
ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY WITH AREAS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA REACHING
THE 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST THU MAR 6 2025
ACTIVE AVIATION WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THIS AFTERNOON LASTING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW AND RAIN WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA IMPACTING KVTN.
RAIN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW BY THIS EVENING AND SPREAD
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO SEE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 WITH VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY DUE TO FALLING SNOW AND INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES
OFF INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR NEZ004-094.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ FRIDAY FOR
NEZ005>010-023>027.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ TO 6 PM CST
/5 PM MST/ FRIDAY FOR NEZ022-028-029-035>038.
SHORT TERM...GOMEZ
LONG TERM...GOMEZ
AVIATION...KULIK
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