980
FXUS63 KLBF 071125
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
525 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
- FAIR CONDITIONS WITH A NOTABLE WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY.
- INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE
ACROSS NEBRASKA LATE NEXT WEEK, THOUGH ANY IMPACTS TO THE
REGION ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED RADAR TRENDS, HAVE TRIMMED THE
END TIME OF CURRENT HEADLINES TO NOON CST/11AM MST
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BEING DRIVEN BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH STRONG MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AND FGEN FORCING NORTH OF THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE HEAVIEST
SNOW CONSOLIDATING GENERALLY EAST OF HWY 83 AND NORTH OF HWY 2,
THOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS UPSTREAM AND
ADDITIONAL LIGHTER SNOW STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY AROUND DAYBREAK WITH THE UPSTREAM
SNOW CONTINUING TO FILL IN AND ROTATE THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
BEFORE PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL HEADLINES AND STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
LOOK TO BE ON TARGET SO WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY MAJOR
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME AS WANT TO KEEP MESSAGING CONSISTENT AS
FOLKS GET OUT AND ABOUT FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. THERE IS STILL
SIGNAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOCUSED LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AS THE BLOOMING SNOW MOVES THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE I-80 CORRIDOR INDICATING
POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES. HOWEVER PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE ONLY HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL RATES AT OR
ABOVE 1" PER HOUR ACROSS I-80 THROUGH DAYBREAK SO DO NOT SEE A
NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. WILL BE
MONITOR TRENDS ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSELY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY GUSTY
IN THE 20 TO 30MPH RANGE AND EXPECT SOME PATCHY
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE AROUND BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER
THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
BY TONIGHT WE START TO GET INTO SOME NORTHERN STREAM RIDGING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO START THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT
WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND GIVEN
SOME FRESH SNOW COVER ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY DOWN INTO THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND NICELY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S SOUTH OR
I-80, MIDDLE 40S IN THE DEEPER SNOW FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A MEAN RIDGE IN
IN A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE WESTERN US THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO
NEBRASKA WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT INTO THE 90TH PERCENTILE BY
MONDAY SUPPORTING HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S SOUTH TO
MIDDLE 60S NORTH. HOWEVER A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FOR TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL REBOUND THROUGH THURSDAY. WORTH NOTING
THAT JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE
FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY
THOUGH AT THIS TIME ANY IMPACTS TO THE REGION ARE UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. ALL AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT
10-20 KTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ004>010-023>027-094.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ022-028-029-035>038.
UPDATE...MBS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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