957
FXUS63 KLBF 081122
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
522 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
- A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NEXT WEEK. THE THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS DECENT AND RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
UPPER LOW TRACK AND TEMPERATURE PROFILE WITH THIS SYSTEM...(TO
BE DETERMINED).
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
H5 ANALYSIS TONIGHT HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR. SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WAS POSITIONED
OVER SOUTHEASTERN IOWA SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. WEST OF THIS
FEATURE, CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING WEST AND SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
WEST OF THE LOW, RIDGING EXTENDED FROM FAR SOUTHWESTERN OREGON,
NORTH INTO EASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT, HIGH
PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED FROM WYOMING INTO NEBRASKA. A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED FROM EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, EAST TO THE ARKLATEX, THEN
NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. OVERNIGHT, SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 AM CST RANGED FROM 11 DEGREES AT
VALENTINE TO 25 DEGREES AT BROKEN BOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN ARIZONA, WILL TRACK EAST INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
NEBRASKA TODAY LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
FOR HIGHS TODAY, FELT THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WAS WAY TOO WARM,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
SNOW COVER REMAINS FROM THURSDAY'S SYSTEM. WENT AHEAD AND
BLENDED PERSISTENCE WITH THE NBM. THIS HELD ONTO THE WARMER
TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND TOOK INTO
ACCOUNT EXPECTED COOLER READINGS OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS RESULTED IN HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S OVER THE
NORTH WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT LEADING TO LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER READINGS IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. RIDGING ALOFT WILL
BUILD EAST ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. H85 TEMPS WILL
APPROACH 10C IN THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ANY RESIDUAL SNOW COVER, WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS.
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND MINIMUM RH IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT
RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON, NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE PROBABLE ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO HIT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO
AND THIS MORNING'S FWF PACKAGE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR,
MAINLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA, LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. LOCATIONS
IN THE EAST, SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S FOR TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE WARM IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
AND FIRE DANGER WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL THURSDAY, AS GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY NIGHT, A
DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO RAPID DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. IN FACT BY FRIDAY, THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC GFS HAS A 970MB SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ALREADY HAS A 982MB LOW TRACKING ACROSS
NEBRASKA FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS IN THE 970-980MB RANGE. THE
LATEST EC ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ALSO AT 982MB WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS
IN THE 970-980MB RANGE. NO DOUBT, THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A WIND
PRODUCER, COMPARABLE TO WHAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS WEEK.
PRECIPITATION TYPES APPEAR MUDDLED WITH THE EC AND GFS
DETERMINISTIC SOLNS TONIGHT AS THE GFS WOULD FAVOR SNOW AND,
GIVEN THE EXPECTED WINDS, BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE EC IS MUCH
WARMER AND WOULD FAVOR MORE RAIN AND A SMALL WINDOW FOR SNOW. IN
FACT THE LATEST GFS SOLN HAS H85 TEMPS OF -12C FOR LBF SATURDAY
MORNING WITH EC AT -1C!
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH
THIN CLOUDS SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5-15 KTS TODAY AND 5-10 KTS TONIGHT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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