594
FXUS63 KLBF 091156
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
656 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN STRONG WINDS CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH THE LATEST ENSEMBLE AND MID RANGE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS. P-TYPES ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. IF SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE, GIVEN THE DECENT
CONFIDENCE IN STRONG WINDS, BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAD AN AREA OF CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OVER
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A TROUGH EXTENDED TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST OF THIS
FEATURE INTO NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WAS
UNDERNEATH A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH EXTENDED FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA EAST INTO MANITOBA. A SECOND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM LABRADOR NEWFOUNDLAND, SOUTH INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF NOTE WAS A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE, SOUTHWEST TO APPROXIMATELY 1000 MILES OFF THE COAST
OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED OVER WESTERN MISSOURI. WEAK WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WERE PRESENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS DRIFTING INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA FROM SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT,
RANGED FROM 25 DEGREES AT OGALLALA TO 34 DEGREES AT GORDON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, WILL BUILD EAST TODAY WITH
H85 TEMPS RISING TO 10 TO 14C BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE IN THE 60S, EXCEPT SNOW COVERED AREAS OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA WHERE TEMPS WERE LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERN SHIFTS TO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY MORNING, TRACKING INTO MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTH OF THE LOW, DECENT WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH DAKOTA, SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA. BY AFTERNOON,
H85 WINDS REACH 20 TO 30 KTS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD MIXING
POTENTIAL UP TO H85 AND ABOVE. WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS AND DRY
AIRMASS OFF TO THE WEST, AFTERNOON RH WILL FALL OFF TO 12 TO 20
PERCENT ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY'S 2 AND 91. THAT BEING
SAID, WILL HOIST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONES 204, 206, 210,
208 AND 219 FROM NOON THROUGH 8 PM CDT MONDAY. WITH THE CURRENT
SNOW COVER EXTENDING FROM SHERIDAN COUNTY EAST TO HOLT COUNTY,
WILL PUT VERBIAGE IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IT IS FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF HIGHWAYS 2 AND 91 FROM ANTIOCH TO BARTLETT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
A DECENT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER COMPARED TO MONDAY'S HIGHS, RESULTING IN AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TUESDAY MORNING, THEN SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S
IN THE NORTHEAST, TO NEAR 60 IN SW NEBRASKA. WEDNESDAY, AND THE
FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN ACROSS THE
AREA WITH WARM AIR PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND HIGH
PLAINS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH 70S ON THURSDAY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM. THURSDAY NIGHT AN APPROACHING MID
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO OVER THE SPAN OF 12 HOURS.
THIS WILL INDUCE RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BY MIDDAY FRIDAY,
THE LATEST GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS A 972MB LOW LOCATED OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE TREND IN SURFACE PRESSURE IS LOWER COMPARED
TO LAST NIGHT WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS IN THE 960 TO 970MB RANGE.
THE LATEST GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS THIS LOW AT 980 MB WITH
SEVERAL MEMBERS IN THE 970 TO 980MB RANGE. THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC SOLNS FROM THE GFS AND EC HAVE THE LOW AT 969 AND
976MB RESPECTIVELY. NO DOUBT, THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A STRONG WIND
PRODUCER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
BEING FROM NORTHERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC SOLNS, ABUNDANT DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION APPEARS
TO BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ATTM THERE ARE STILL SOME DECENT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO H85 TEMPS SATURDAY
MORNING. THE EC HAS TEMPS AS LOW AS -2C, WHILE THE GFS/CANADIAN
HAS TEMPS AS LOW AS LOW AS -13C. NO DOUBT THIS WILL PLAY HEAVILY
INTO PTYPES AND HEADLINE PRODUCTS LATE IN THE WEEK. STAY TUNED
AS THIS COULD GET REALLY INTERESTING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY AND TONIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT,
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-209-210-219.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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