451
FXUS63 KLBF 121732
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1232 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TODAY, THEN COOLER AND WINDY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-80 THOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
TODAY, THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS
OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS, WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL BY AFTERNOON, AND A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. VERY WARM H85 TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH, WITH
78 TO 85 ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL. ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST AS HUMIDITY FALLS TO NEAR 15 PERCENT OVER SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS, THOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
TONIGHT, AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN SHERIDAN
COUNTY LATE EVENING. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WILL KEEP LOWS MILD FROM THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50.
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND UPPER
60S SOUTHEAST. WINDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FURTHER DETAILS FOUND BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF I80 SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH THE
BETTER FOCUS WILL BE FROM EAST CENTRAL CO ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING EVEN COOLER
HIGHS MONDAY, FROM MID 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH. ANOTHER WINDY
DAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH.
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN TUESDAY, WITH A RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS RETURN TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
A WARMUP INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DROPS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS
OVER THE REGION. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH. THE PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR RAINFALL ONLY INCREASES TO 20 TO 35 PERCENT DURING THE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. HIGHS FORECAST TO COOL INTO THE
60S THURSDAY AND THE 50S FRIDAY, WITH REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED MONDAY, WITH ELEVATED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEE THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANDHILLS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AROUND 5 TO 10
KTS, INCREASING LATE MORNING WITH WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KTS WITH
GUST UP TO 35 KTS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
TODAY WILL BE HOT WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES SOUTH OF HWY 2, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TO THE
NORTH BEHIND A WEAK FRONT. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HWY 2, WILL SEE
HUMIDITY DOWN TO AROUND 15 PERCENT, WHILE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FROM
18 TO 24 PERCENT TO THE NORTH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AT
5 TO 15 MPH, THOUGH VARIABLE IN DIRECTION WITH A WEAK FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ELEVATED, DUE TO SURFACE WINDS
BEING LIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON SUNDAY, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL RANGE AS LOW AS 18 TO 22 PERCENT, AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MONDAY, ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL BE COOLER IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60,
NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH WILL AGAIN COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 17 TO 25 PERCENT FOR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL, AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AND WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG, THOUGH
GUST TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15 TO
25 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 70 TUESDAY AND WELL INTO
THE 70S WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...GOMEZ
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERG
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