685
FXUS63 KLBF 122246
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
546 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.
- PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BLUSTERY WINDS TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TOMORROW
THROUGH MONDAY, ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 SUNDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
AN UPPER TROF MOVING OUT OF THE PACNW WILL DEVELOP A COLORADO LOW
THAT WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT AND INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD
DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BEHIND THE LOW AND PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE IS QUITE
LIMITED WITH NO CONTINUOUS FEED EVIDENT FROM EITHER THE PACIFIC
OR THE GULF SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS LOW. ASIDE FROM A
POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS UP
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA UP ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR TWO
APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS JUST A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SO EXPECTING LITTLE IF
ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND FOR THE MAJORITY OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.
POTENTIAL IS MUCH HIGHER FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER, STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF
WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS UP TO
A 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 40 MPH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AGAIN AS LAGGING COLDER AIR STARTS SURGING
DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUING TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX SO THE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW
BUT LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA UP TOWARD THE PINE RIDGE
WILL ONLY SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S DUE TO THE
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE 30S,
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH MIDDLE 50S
NEAR THE SD BORDER TO LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I-80. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 20S SO FOLKS GETTING A JUMP ON THE
SEASON SHOULD MAKE SURE THEIR SPRINKLERS WILL BE SAFE FROM THE
COLD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN ACROSS THE US THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A WARM RIDGE
BUILDING IN THE WEST TO START THE WEEK, THEN GIVING WAY TO A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME BY THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
PROMISES TO BE A DRY PERIOD FOR US THROUGH MIDWEEK AND AFTER A
BRIEF COOL DOWN MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD BACK TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT APPROACH THE
90TH PERCENTILE. AS THE SPLIT FLOW REGIME TAKES SHAPE WITH A
CLOSED LOW SINKING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US, A COOL NORTHERN
STREAM TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES, BLUSTERY
WINDS, AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS BY THURSDAY. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING SOME
MOISTURE UP FORM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE
EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST US NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE EFFECTIVE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THIS EVENING, BUT BEGIN PICKING UP OUT OF
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW, THE WINDS ALSO
BECOME GUSTY. AROUND SUNRISE, WINDS GUSTS MOSTLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW
25 KNOTS, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION BY MID
MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. AS FOR SKY CONDITIONS, SKIES REMAIN
BROKEN TO OVERCAST OVERNIGHT, WITH VFR CEILINGS. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SHOULD BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON,
BEFORE CLOUDS RETURN IN THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
THERE ARE SEVERAL MOVING PARTS TO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TOMORROW WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW WELL THINGS WILL
OVERLAP. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY SUNDAY WITH A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 40MPH. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH FOR A BIT
BEFORE SURGING ONCE AGAIN AS LAGGING COLDER AIR SURGES IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL, HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGHER THAN IN RECENT
DAYS THOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR ALOFT TO WORK DOWN
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BEFORE THE COOLER AIR SURGES
DOWN. WHILE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW WELL THE WINDS AND
LOW RH WILL OVERLAP, THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 40MPH
IS EXPECTED TO COMPENSATE FOR ANY NON-CRITICAL RH TO CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA, SO HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE
BLUSTERY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND DESPITE COOLER
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE DRY SO THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
BEYOND MONDAY, WINDS WILL EASE BUT CONTINUES DRYNESS AND RISING
TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOUR SO EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. RISING HUMIDITY AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MAY
EASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATE NEXT WEEK AND HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND BUT WINDS WILL BE STARTING TO INCREASE BY THURSDAY WITH
A BETTER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30MPH LATE
NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...RICHIE
FIRE WEATHER...MBS
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