838
FXUS63 KLBF 131727
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1227 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY, ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-80 TONIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 80 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING WAS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SHOWERS WERE CONFINED TO EASTERN
MONTANA, NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA REMAINED MILD BEHIND THE
FRONT FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE STRONG TODAY AT 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS NEAR 40KT AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER. HIGHS TODAY WILL STILL BE FROM 3 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR NORTHWEST TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ELSEWHERE. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY, AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING, WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT. FURTHER DETAILS
FOUND BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION.
TONIGHT, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO 30 TO 35 MPH AT
TIMES, WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I80, THOUGH THE BETTER FOCUS WILL BE FROM
NORTHEAST COLORADO ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. LOWS WILL BE COLDER
FROM NEAR 30 NORTHWEST SANDHILLS TO MID AND UPPER 30S
SOUTHEAST. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL RANGE FROM LOW 20S TO UPPER
20S BY LATER TONIGHT.
MONDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ON THE BACKSIDE WILL SWING THROUGH
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE, A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. ANOTHER
WINDY DAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHS FROM NEAR 55 NORTH TO UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
SOUTH. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS, NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN TUESDAY, AS A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST. HIGHS
RETURN TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
A WARMUP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE UPPER TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CLOSED LOW DROPPING ACROSS NEVADA INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS OVER THE
REGION, WITH INCREASING CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FORECAST
TO HOLD IN THE 70S MOST AREAS THURSDAY AS A FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
IN. COOLER BEHIND A FRONT IN THE 50S FRIDAY. MODELS FORECAST A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRIDAY TO REACH JUST WEST
OF THE FOUR CORNERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, ELEVATED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE EFFECTIVE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT, WINDS REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA, WITH SLIGHTLY LESS GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. WHILE
CURRENT GUIDANCE REMAINS OPTIMISTIC FOR VFR CONDITIONS, SOME
SOLUTIONS ARE BRINGING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN VFR CEILINGS IN THE TAF, AS CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR CEILINGS IS LOW. BY MID MORNING, SKIES CLEAR AGAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS RESUME OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
TODAY, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL BE COOLER FROM THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY WILL RANGE AS LOW AS 18 TO 22 PERCENT, AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, AND A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 10 PM CDT AS GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT.
MONDAY, ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL BE COOLER IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60,
NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE,
WILL AGAIN COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15 TO 25
PERCENT FOR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL, AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AND SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG, ALTHOUGH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15 TO
20 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE LOW 70S WEST ON TUESDAY
AND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ON WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED FIRE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...RICHIE
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERG
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