297
FXUS63 KLBF 132346
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
646 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
- THURSDAY IS NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 421 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
FOR TODAY, DID UP TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH WINDS AS MIXING HEIGHT WAS A LITTLE DEEPER AND ABLE TO TAP INTO
SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS. DID ADD SOME SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING, GENERALLY NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
CONFIDENCE IN MUCH PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND IS SLIM AS
DRIER AIR NEAR THE SFC WILL HINDER THIS AND EXPECTED ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, GIVING THE SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTIER, ERRATIC WINDS
WITH THE SHOWERS AND EVEN A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN'T BE
RULED OUT, WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS LITTLE PRECIP IS
EXPECTED IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE DRY LIGHTNING.
FOR TOMORROW, BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATED THE MIXING OF WINDS TO THE
SFC A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE INHERITED FORECAST THUS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR WINDS FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER TOMORROW AS COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES COLDER FOR MONDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MONDAY LED TO RED FLAG WARNINGS BEING
ISSUED, FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 421 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
LATE MONDAY AND WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S AND 80S. A COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME THE ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS REMAINS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA, BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE SYSTEM GETS
CLOSER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION WILL BE STRONG WINDS THIS TAF
PERIOD.
RADAR SHOWS SOME SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THOUGH
VERY LITTLE IS REACHING THE GROUND SO MAINLY JUST VIRGA. WILL
USE A VCSH AT KLBF UNTIL THE SHOWERS/VIRGA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
A PUSH OF COLD AIR MOVING DOWN FROM SOUTH DAKOTA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A SURGE OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS WILL GO
WITH THE STRONGER WINDS AS PREVAILING AT KVTN WITH GUSTS OVER
40KT, THOUGH THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE WINDS COULD APPROACH
50KT, BEFORE THE STRONGER WINDS START TO DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE GUSTS SHOULD REACH KLBF AROUND 03Z JUST AS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT THOUGH EXPECT THEY WILL ATTENUATE TO
AROUND 38KT HERE WITH ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE TO EXCEED 40KT.
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT, THEN RETURN WITH ONSET OF
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING MONDAY MORNING. INITIAL GUSTS LOOK TO BE
IN THE 30 TO 35KT RANGE, THOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AT
OR ABOVE 45KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IF MIXING EXCEEDS
EXPECTATIONS AND BRINGS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 421 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
UPPER RIDGE BREAKDOWN TODAY LED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
AND GUST UP TO 50 MPH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
OVERNIGHT AROUND 30 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME LIMITED POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONES 210 AND 219 WHERE
HUMIDITY VALUES MAY STAY AROUND 60 TO 65% HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW, THUS DID NOT CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER RED FLAG HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON TO 25 TO 35
SUSTAINED WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UP TO 50 MPH WIND GUST. MIN
RH VALUES BOTH DAYS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
FOR THIS EVENING WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS FIRE WX ZONES 210 AND 219 WHERE SOUNDINGS WOULD
SUGGEST SHOWERS COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE EVEN STRONGER
WIND GUSTS AND ERRATIC WINDS. A STRAY CHANCE FOR A LIGHTNING STRIKE
CAN'T BE RULED OUT, AND ANY LIGHTNING WILL BE DRY LIGHTNING AS
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIMITED.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ MONDAY FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
SHORT TERM...GOMEZ
LONG TERM...GOMEZ
AVIATION...MBS
FIRE WEATHER...GOMEZ
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