481
FXUS63 KLBF 140620
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
120 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
- THURSDAY IS NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 906 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
WITH RISING HUMIDITY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED TONIGHT SO THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED EARLY. HOWEVER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
OVERNIGHT AND ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS
ONCE AGAIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS TRACKING WELL SO NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES PLANNED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 421 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
FOR TODAY, DID UP TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH WINDS AS MIXING HEIGHT WAS A LITTLE DEEPER AND ABLE TO TAP INTO
SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS. DID ADD SOME SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING, GENERALLY NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
CONFIDENCE IN MUCH PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND IS SLIM AS
DRIER AIR NEAR THE SFC WILL HINDER THIS AND EXPECTED ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, GIVING THE SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTIER, ERRATIC WINDS
WITH THE SHOWERS AND EVEN A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN'T BE
RULED OUT, WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS LITTLE PRECIP IS
EXPECTED IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE DRY LIGHTNING.
FOR TOMORROW, BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATED THE MIXING OF WINDS TO THE
SFC A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE INHERITED FORECAST THUS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR WINDS FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER TOMORROW AS COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES COLDER FOR MONDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MONDAY LED TO RED FLAG WARNINGS BEING
ISSUED, FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 421 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
LATE MONDAY AND WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S AND 80S. A COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME THE ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS REMAINS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA, BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE SYSTEM GETS
CLOSER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL TEND TO THIN WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY, DECREASING EARLY THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 421 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
UPPER RIDGE BREAKDOWN TODAY LED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT AROUND 30 MPH. THERE
MAY BE SOME LIMITED POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY ACROSS FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 210 AND 219 WHERE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY STAY AROUND 60 TO
65% HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW, THUS DID NOT CONTINUE THE RED
FLAG WARNING OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER RED FLAG HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
TO 25 TO 35 SUSTAINED WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UP TO 50 MPH
WIND GUST. MIN RH VALUES BOTH DAYS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20
PERCENT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9
PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
UPDATE...MBS
SHORT TERM...GOMEZ
LONG TERM...GOMEZ
AVIATION...TAYLOR
FIRE WEATHER...GOMEZ
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