385
FXUS63 KLBF 141724
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1224 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND 25 TO 35 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH COMBINE WITH LOW HUMIDITY. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- POTENTIAL FOR A CLOSED UPPER LOW PASSAGE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
NEBRASKA. AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SWING THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE, A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY THIS MORNING WITH STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WINDY DAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHS FROM NEAR 55 NORTH
CENTRAL TO UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS, AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT
ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT. SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.
TONIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
WITH CLEAR SKIES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT WESTERLY
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR
WITH SUBFREEZING LOWS FROM 25 TO 29 DEGREES.
TUESDAY, AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND, UPPER HEIGHT RISES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 20 MPH
ACROSS THE WEST. HIGHS RETURN TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
A WARMUP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WEDNESDAY WITH A BROAD
FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DROPS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A CLOSED LOW REMAINS OF
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
CLOSED LOW DROPPING ACROSS NEVADA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS
OVER THE REGION, WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH WESTERN
NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASING CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. NBM PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN A 1/10 OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS FROM 50 TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TO ONLY 25 TO 40 PERCENT SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
HIGHS FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT
ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MODELS FORECAST
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRIDAY TO REACH NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
POPS INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A POTENTIAL UPPER TROUGH AND
CLOSED LOW CROSSES THE REGION. CONFIDENCE HAS LOWERED HOWEVER, AS
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ONLY BRING AN OPEN
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
OKLAHOMA, MISSOURI AND IOWA. THE OPERATIONAL GFS STILL BRINGS A
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW ACROSS NEBRASKA, THOUGH THE GFS ENSEMBLE
QPF PLUMES HAVE LOWERED NOTICEABLY.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, ELEVATED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
AS WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE BELOW 25 MPH. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON
THURSDAY COULD CREATE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
NEAR AND SOUTH OF I80. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
SPECIFIC DETAILS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. AN AREA OF CUMULUS CLOUDS IS TRACKING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS, HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REACHING
THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. MORE CONCERNING THIS AFTERNOON IS THE
CONTINUING STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WITH SPORADIC GUSTS OF 40 KNOTS OR MORE
POSSIBLE AT THE SURFACE. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CALM SLIGHTLY AFTER
SUNSET, THEN DIMINISH COMPLETELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM NORTHWESTERLY, TO WESTERLY, TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUR OVERNIGHT, AND ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
TODAY, HIGHS WILL BE COOLER IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. NORTHWEST
WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, WILL
AGAIN COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 PERCENT FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL FIRE DISTRICTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL, AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AND SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE LIGHTER AND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 25 MPH. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 PERCENT AS
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE LOW 70S WEST ON TUESDAY AND AROUND 80 ON
WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY COULD CREATE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I80.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...RICHIE
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERG
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