324
FXUS63 KLBF 150529
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1229 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
- WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S
- THURSDAY IS NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
FOR TODAY, THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS, THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. DID MAKE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON, BUMPING
THEM A LITTLE HIGHER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING POTENTIAL OF WINDS TO THE SFC GREATER
THAN 40KTS IN SOME LOCATIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON, THUS TRENDED
WITH THE 90 PERCENTILE. WINDS SHOULD START TO DECREASE BY MID
EVENING.
AS FOR THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, EXPECT THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
SD AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA.
SHOWERS ARE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT THESE TO BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BY EVENING. LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
AND THE COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST. THE GREATEST CONCERN
WITH THESE SHOWERS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER ERRATIC
WINDS, BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERTED V, WITH THE DRIER AIR AT
THE SFC WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO BE MOSTLY WIND GUST
WITH VERY LITTLE PRECIP, AT THIS TIME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER CAN'T RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING.
THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
THE RIDGE ACROSS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
SPREADS EAST OVER THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST OF THE THE WEEK REACHING THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THURSDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA, BUT DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE GREATEST ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A CLOSED LOW
SYSTEM TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION, MAINLY ON SUNDAY. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM, THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE
EC AND GFS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING, DEEPENING OF THE LOW
AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE
LOW MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT EARLIER RUNS WERE NOT AS CLOSE
AGREEMENT SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT FEW RUNS TO SEE IF THE
CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO PREVAIL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
VFR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
AT 10-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASE AND BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL MINIMUM RH IS
LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, WINDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH 10 TO 15
MPH EXPECTED OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. ON WEDNESDAY, WINDS
WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. RH WILL
BE LOWEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83. ON THURSDAY, EXPECT STRONGER WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 30
TO 40 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON RH OF 25 TO 50 PERCENT
ACROSS THE AREA.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GOMEZ
LONG TERM...GOMEZ
AVIATION...TAYLOR
FIRE WEATHER...BUTTLER
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