848
FXUS63 KLBF 151724
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1224 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG AND CONTAIN HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.
- MUCH COOLER FRIDAY FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S WITH LINGERING
SHOWER CHANCES.
- POTENTIAL FOR A CLOSED UPPER LOW PASSAGE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
TODAY, AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND, UPPER HEIGHT RISES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
COLORADO AND WYOMING. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 20
MPH ACROSS THE WEST. A SUNNY SKY AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS NEAR AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
TONIGHT, THE SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. SCATTERED MID CLOUDS
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS NOT AS COLD IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S AND WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER NEAR THE NBM 50TH PERCENTILE.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.
A BROAD FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A CLOSED LOW REMAINS
OF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS BECOME WEST 5 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE
WEST, WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY FALLING TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH IN THE EAST. WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
20 MPH, ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED AND IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
CLOSED LOW DROPPING INTO NORTHERN NEVADA/NORTHERN UTAH. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS OVER THE REGION, WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST SANDHILLS, 60S CENTRAL AREAS,
WITH MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST. BECOMING WINDY AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE TO 50 TO 70 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF AN H3 JET MAX POSITIONED FROM SOUTHEAST CO THROUGH
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY
EVENING IS FORECASTING A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EAST OF
A LINE FROM IMPERIAL THROUGH OGALLALA AND SPRINGVIEW. HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
NBM PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN A 1/10 OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL
IS FROM 50 TO 70 PERCENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO ONLY
25 TO 40 PERCENT SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
VFR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
AT 10-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASE AND BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. NEBRASKA.
MUCH COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS
FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS FORECAST A CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS ON SATURDAY TO
CROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY AND INTO CENTRAL
OR NORTHERN MISSOURI SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS ABOUT 250 TO 400
MILES FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED 24 HOURS AGO.
SO, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WILL FALL
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
NBM POPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING DO STILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30
PERCENT, AS MODEL DIFFERENCE REMAIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE QPF
PLUMES CONTINUE TO SHOW QUITE A SPREAD, WHICH INDICATES SOME
POTENTIAL THAT THE SYSTEM MAY TRACK FURTHER NORTHWEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25KTS
EXPECTED. WINDS WEAKEN THIS EVENING, AND BECOME LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...BROWN
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