015
FXUS63 KLBF 160602
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
102 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD RH OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT HOWEVER.
- STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME STRONG TO LOW
END SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR THURSDAY
EVENING.
- COLDER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN SANDHILLS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
- A SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. ATTM, THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO
BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE (~20%) OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES. FOR TONIGHT, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE OZARKS. AT THE SAME TIME,
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
VERY WARM AIR WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION FROM WESTERN KANSAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND HIGHS WERE TRENDED UPWARD TOWARD THE
STATISTICAL MET AND MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS. THIS YIELDED FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WITH SOME MIDDLE 80S IN FAR SW NEBRASKA.
WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE 20S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
MINIMUM RH WILL FALL OFF TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183. WINDS HOWEVER WILL ONLY REACH 10 TO 20 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WILL MITIGATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WAS CONCERNED ABOUT SOME GUSTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA, FEEL WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH
WEDS AFTERNOON. THAT BEING SAID, WILL FORGO ANY FIRE HEADLINES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL LIFT FROM COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS DISTURBANCE
MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE,
THE THREAT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LOW.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
ON THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.
BY AFTERNOON, THE FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED FROM THE EAST CENTRAL
PANHANDLE TO AINSWORTH. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, IT WILL BE ANOTHER
WARM DAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. BY AFTERNOON, A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND
WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE LATEST NAM12 SOLN HAS DECENT AMOUNTS
OF ELEVATED CAPE (H800-H700) ALONG WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
IN THE H850-H70 LEVEL, ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS VERY STRONG THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING AND MAY
BE TOO STRONG FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO OVERCOME. WITH RESPECT
TO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP, THEY WILL BE HIGHLY ELEVATED
GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT GIVEN THE FORECAST INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDINGS. SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR FURTHER EAST GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF ELEVATED CAPE. THURSDAY NIGHT, THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT A SECOND ROUND OF
FORCING WILL LIFT FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO
FACILITATE SNOW, ESPECIALLY FROM THE EAST NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SANDHILLS. GIVEN THE WARM GROUND
CONDITIONS AND TIGHT DIURNAL WINDOW, NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS. CONDITIONS WILL THEN DRY OUT LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL AS
HIGHS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER 50S. A SECONDARY THREAT
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A CLOSED LOW TRACKS ACROSS KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO MODIFY UPWARD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A MORE ZONAL PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH THE NEXT
THREAT FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SCATTERED HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE NOTED FROM TIME TO TIME, OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR. WINDS WILL WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 15 KTS OR
LESS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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