183
FXUS63 KLBF 162102
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
402 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD POSE A
THREAT FOR HAIL.
- RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH A THREAT FOR LIGHT (~1-2")
ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE PINE RIDGE.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND (HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO 50S), BEFORE WARMING BACK TO NEAR AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE (HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S) NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO 80S ACROSS
THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A SURFACE TROUGH IS POSITIONED
FROM NEAR VALENTINE TO MCCOOK, WITH INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE LED TO DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. NEAR-CRITICAL TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECTED CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WARM ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, AS BROAD LEE CYCLOGENESIS PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN
WYOMING. THIS PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP LOWS MILD
TONIGHT, IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT EAST ALONG THE NE/SD STATE LINE,
DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA NEAR SUNRISE.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA POST-FRONTAL BY NOON. NORTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY
STRENGTHEN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MILES PER HOUR ALONG WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO COME IN TWO REGIMES TOMORROW, THE FIRST BEING
WITHIN THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN VERY MEAGER
AT BEST, AND SHOULD LARGELY TEMPER MUCH, IF NOT ALL, CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. STILL, SHOULD ANY CONVECTION OCCUR, STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL PROMOTE MUCAPE VALUES CLIMBING TO
~500-1000 J/KG SOUTH OF HWY 2. SHEAR PROFILES LOOK ADEQUATE TO
SUPPORT A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS, AND
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO TOMORROW EVENING.
FURTHER NORTHWEST, LARGE SCALE LIFT LOOKS MORE THAN AMPLE TO SUPPORT
MORE WIDESPREAD BANDED PRECIPITATION, WITHIN A CONSTRICTING MID-
LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING FGEN. DYNAMIC COOLING COMBINED
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING TOMORROW NIGHT LOOKS TO COOL THE COLUMN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN/SNOW AND EVEN ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF CONCERNING SNOWFALL RATES THURSDAY NIGHT, AS A THREAT
EXISTS FOR PURELY CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL AT TIMES. ADD IN THE
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS, AND HAZARDOUS VISIBILITIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE PINE RIDGE, WHERE ~1-2" OF SLUSHY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
POTENTIAL WINTER HEADLINES, AS ROBUST SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
PRECIPITATION QUICKLY TAPERS FROM EAST TO WEST FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE EXCEPTION WOULD
BE FOR AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF HWY 61, WHERE BROAD UPSLOPE FLOW COULD
LEAD TO LINGERING PRECIPITATION INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT, AN UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IT APPEARS THIS LOW WILL TRACK FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THAT IT WILL LARGELY KEEP US DEVOID OF
PRECIPITATION, KEEPING ANY MOISTURE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN
NEBRASKA. THIS ALSO KEEPS THE AREA WITHIN A BROAD COLD ADVECTION
REGIME, AND KEEPS HIGHS BELOW AVERAGE (HIGHS IN 50S) THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. ZONAL FLOW THEN ESTABLISHES ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK, WITH SOME THREAT OF PRECIPITATION NEARLY EACH DAY, AND SLOWLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED, AS THIS
WOULD BRING A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIALLY
BENEFICIAL MOISTURE BACK TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS LATER THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 20000 FT AGL. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE
AT THE KVTN TERMINAL WITH A SHIFT TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THURSDAY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE LATE MORNING. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL,
EXPECT SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AT THE KLBF TERMINAL.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...BUTTLER
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