793
FXUS63 KLBF 170844
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
344 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND FROM NEAR I80 NORTHWARD INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD
POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL.
- RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
TONIGHT, WITH A THREAT FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES NEAR THE PINE RIDGE.
- TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL IN THE 40S ON FRIDAY,
MODERATING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
SUNDAY. WARMING TO ABOVE AVERAGE (65 TO 75) NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
TODAY, A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM
SASKATCHEWAN CANADA THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA AND EASTERN NEVADA,
WHERE A CLOSED LOW WILL BE LOCATED. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 21Z. THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG
FURTHER BEHIND FROM THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO NEAR THE NE/SD BORDER
INTO SD AT THIS TIME. HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ONLY REACH FROM
NEAR 49 AT GORDON, MID 60 CENTRAL AREAS TO NEAR 75 FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS. BECOMING WINDY AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON
IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA (EAST OF BROKEN BOW THROUGH O'NEILL, BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND NEAR THE NOSE OF VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MOST
OF THE CAMS AND MESOSCALE MODELS DEVELOP SURFACE BASED STORMS
FURTHER EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA, ALTHOUGH RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR
STILL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. MEANWHILE, SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST NAM12 SHOWS
MUCAPES NEAR 250 TO 750 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN
PARTS OF NCTRL NEBRASKA AND A MODEST 150 TO 250 J/KG BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE EVENING, WHERE ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL UP
TO 1 INCH DIAMETER WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS, SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL.
THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW CHANGE TO SNOW LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOST MODELS
DO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, THOUGH SOME WILL MELT
WITH WARMER GROUND TEMPERATURES. CURRENT FORECAST DOES HAVE A HALF
INCH TO AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS, WITH
NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE PINE RIDGE. SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY
TO A MILE OR LESS IS POSSIBLE, IN ANY OF THE HEAVIER BANDS. LOWS
TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST SANDHILLS, TO MID 30S EAST.
FRIDAY, LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WESTERN SANDHILLS, THOUGH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ONLY BE A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS NORTH PLATTE AND
AINSWORTH IN THE MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL END DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S WEST, TO UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 EAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT BELOW
FREEZING IN THE LOW 20S TO UPPER 20S. ANY TENDER VEGETATION SHOULD
BE COVERED.
MODELS STILL FORECAST AN UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS ON SATURDAY. THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A CLOSED LOW MAY MOVE FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA/NORTHWEST MISSOURI ON SUNDAY AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z
ECMWF. THIS WOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
STILL TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST SUNDAY WITH JUST 20 TO
30 POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE
50S SATURDAY WARM SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
SUNDAY. 70 TO 75 ON MONDAY AND MID 60S TO LOW 70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE UPPER FLOW RETURNING TO FAIRLY ZONAL. LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT'S WAY SOUTHWARD THOUGH
THE AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH AND INCREASINGLY GUSTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOWER CEILINGS MVFR/IFR WILL
SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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