007
FXUS63 KLBF 180545
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1245 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (~20% COVERAGE) ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A MARGINAL THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY FROM LINCOLN COUNTY EAST TO CUSTER
COUNTY.
- POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT WITH SNOW EXPECTED OVER NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE PINE RIDGE AREA.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
READINGS MODERATING BACK TO MORE SEASONAL NORMALS SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM LIE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH TWO
MAIN ISSUES.
1) CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THE 12Z 3KM
NAM IS ABOUT 1 TO 2 HOURS BEHIND ON THE FRONTAL POSITION CURRENTLY.
THIS SOLN FIRES OFF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT, SOME OF WHICH CLIPS
EASTERN CUSTER COUNTY AROUND 21-23Z THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
CURRENT FRONTAL POSITION, HAVE BETTER FAITH IN THE 18Z HRRR SOLN
WHICH FIRES OFF CONVECTION JUST OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THAT BEING SAID, FEEL AT THIS POINT THAT THE SEVERE
THREAT FOR THE FORECAST AREA IS NOW MINIMAL. HOWEVER, ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS ADDITIONAL POST FRONTAL
FORCING WORKS INTO THE SOUTHERN FA EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE REMAINS
A DECENT AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CAPE AND INSTABILITY GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 92 THIS EVENING. ANY STRAY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL MORE
THAN LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS, BUT GIVEN THE MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY, FELT IT PREMATURE TO PULL OUT ALL MENTION OF THUNDER
THROUGH MID EVENING. ANOTHER RECENT DEVELOPMENT, WHICH COULD LIMIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS WHAT IS HAPPENING TO THE AGITATED CU FIELD
OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. OVER THE PAST HOUR, THIS CLOUDINESS IS
BEING SHEARED APART. GIVEN THE MODEL FORECAST OF 60+ KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR, THIS DOESN'T SURPRISE ME.
2) THE THREAT FOR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA. MID
LEVEL LIFT WILL INCREASE FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT. NAM12 CROSS SECTIONS TAKEN
THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE INDICATE A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF
UPRIGHT LIFT (9PM-3AM MT) CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 30S, FALLING TO BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO FACILITATE SNOW. GIVEN THE
UPRIGHT LIFT, SOME SNOW INTENSITIES COULD BE ON THE HIGH SIDE,
ESPECIALLY IF BANDING DEVELOPS, WHICH IS INDICATED IN THE HRRR AND 3
KM NAM SOLNS. BASED ON FORECAST QPF, FEEL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
LOOKS PROBABLE IN NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF
THESE AMOUNTS GO HIGHER IN THE PINE RIDGE. THAT BEING SAID, WILL
HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY FROM 9 PM MT
THROUGH NOON MT TOMORROW. LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. LIGHTER INTENSITIES,
COUPLED WITH WARMER GROUND CONDITIONS, SHOULD LIMIT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS TO UNDER AN INCH.
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT FORCING SOUTH INTO COLORADO AND
KANSAS, EFFECTIVELY SHIFTING THE PRECIPITATION THREAT SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
FRIDAY, HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT, WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA WITH THE BULK OF STORMS/PRECIPITATION
WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN KANSAS. BEYOND SUNDAY, THE
NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW
EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONAL NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE GOOD OVER THE NEXT
WEEK AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
GULF. ATTM THIS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF NEBRASKA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA, LARGELY DRIVEN BY LOWERED CEILINGS FROM RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. EVEN WITH PRECIPITATION FALLING, VISIBILITIES MOSTLY
REMAIN AT 6 MILES OR GREATER, WITH JUST A FEW NOTABLE DROPS TO
AROUND 4 MILES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS, INCLUDING THE KVTN TERMINAL, WHERE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BY MID TO LATE MORNING, A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, WINDS BEGIN TO
DECREASE AND BECOME LESS GUSTY, WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ004.
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...RICHIE
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