800
FXUS63 KLBF 181122
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
622 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING FROM THE WESTERN SANDHILLS
INTO THE PANHANDLE, ESPECIALLY UP NEAR THE PINE RIDGE.
- TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA, THEN TRENDING WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN EAST OF HWY 83 ON SUNDAY.
- PATTERN FAVORING INCREASING MOISTURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
A STEADY SUPPLY OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS COMBINING WITH ABUNDANT
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG JET PUSHING UP FROM
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO THE NORTHEAST TO DRIVE A NARROW BAND OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE PANHANDLE THORUGH NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING, AS WELL AS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF HWY 281 CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME SMALL HAIL. ANTICIPATE THE
CONVECTION IN THE EAST WILL BE EPHEMERAL AND DIMINISHING OVER
THE NEXT 2 HOURS, THOUGH THE PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST WILL BE
AROUND FOR A WHILE LONGER. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH NO
FEED STREAMING UP FROM THE GULF BUT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A DECENT SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC TO
AID PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
USHERING COOLER AIR DOWN FROM THE NORTH EXPECT A RAIN-TO-SNOW
PTYPE TRANSITION TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES ABOUT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE INCH OR MORE GENERALLY BOTH
NORTH OF HWY 2 AND WEST OF HWY 83 AND THERE IS A BETTER THAN
EVEN CHANCE FOR TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 INCHES OR MORE UP NEAR
THE PINE RIDGE. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW ALL THE
WAY SOUTH TO I-80 WEST OF SUTHERLAND. ANTICIPATE THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION INTENSITIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH INTENSITY DIMINISHING AS THE BEST DYNAMIC
FORCING FORM THE UPPER JET MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND
PRECIPITATION MOVES A BIT FURTHER EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. WITH THE LIMITED EXTENT OF POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS THE
CURRENT TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
LIMITED TO SHERIDAN COUNTY CONTINUE TO LOOK ON TARGET.
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF HWY 83 AND
EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL MAKE
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE EAST BEFORE WE TREND BACK TO A DRY
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEFINITELY A RAW FEEL TO THE DAY EVEN FOR AREAS THAT REMAIN DRY WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER, BLUSTERY WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL PEAKING AT 45 TO 50 DEGREES FOR THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA. ANY FOLKS WHO ARE ACTIVELY USING LAWN
SPRINKLERS SHOULD TAKE NOTE THAT THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
READINGS AT OR BELOW 25 DEGREES WEST OF HWY 83 AND NORTH OF I-80
AND A BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE FOR READINGS AT OR BELOW 28
DEGREES FURTHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. WE DO START TO GET INTO A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME ALOFT AS THE DIGGING TROF MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN US STARTS TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
US, ALLOWING FOR SOME PSEUDO RIDGING TO START THE WEEKEND WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND START A TREND TOWARD MODERATING TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN EJECTING THE CLOSED LOW
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN US INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE
A STRONG SURFACE LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANTICIPATE THE BULK OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF OUR AREA THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT RAIN EAST OF HWY 83 ON SUNDAY THOUGH AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE QUITE
LIGHT WITH NO HIGHER THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH OR MORE. A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHERN STREAM TROF THEN BRINGS
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE
FLOW BUCKLES AND PUTS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A PLUME OF
MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING
INTO THE 90TH PERCENTILE. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS UP TO A
50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOUT ONE QUARTER INCH OR RAINFALL ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION SO PERHAPS OUR FIRST OPPORTUNITY
FOR MEANINGFUL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THORUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA, AS A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS TRACKS OUT OF THE
REGION. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE LOWER
CEILINGS, WHICH ARE IMPROVING A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN INITIALLY
EXPECTED. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS
HIGHER END OF CEILING GUIDANCE, AS THE LOWER END GUIDANCE IS WELL
BELOW CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, AND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AROUND SUNSET. OVERNIGHT, WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO WESTERLY ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY LOCATIONS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR NEZ004.
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...RICHIE
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