123
FXUS63 KLBF 031134
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
634 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
- NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND OCCURS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER KANSAS INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION. WINDS WERE
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS AT 31 NORTH PLATTE, 32 GORDON
AND BROKEN BOW, WITH UPPER 30S AINSWORTH AND O'NEILL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. FURTHER
WEST, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE WEST COAST.
WEAK WARM-AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY
AS WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS REMAIN NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM NEAR 75 ACROSS THE
WEST, AND THE LOW 70S EAST. SKIES TO REMAIN SUNNY TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH,
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED, WITH LOWS NOT AS COLD
FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S NORTH CENTRAL TO UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
SUNDAY, HIGHS WARM TO NEAR 75 DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREAS. AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES, A SOUTHEAST
WIND WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE WEST, AND 10 TO 20
MPH IN THE EAST. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHERE WIND GUSTING
UP TO 30 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 25
PERCENT ALTHOUGH GREENUP CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
ON MONDAY, A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT FROM
ARIZONA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP
SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH PWAT VALUES TO THREE-QUARTERS
OF AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON.
INCREASED POPS MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH WEDNESDAY, AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY NIGHT, AS AN UPPER TROUGH
SOUTH OF THE LOW, ROTATES FROM NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS
AND DEVELOPS A NEW CLOSED LOW WHICH SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND
KANSAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
ALL KEEP THIS UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA, AS UPPER RIDGING
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PROBABILITIES HAVE
DECREASED FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FROM THE THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, IN
NEAREST PROXIMITY THE THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA. STILL,
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO ABOVE THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXIST, EVEN
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW
AVERAGE ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH, AND A SLIGHT
SHIFT NORTHWARD REMAINS POSSIBLE, IF THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BECOMES WEAKER. THIS IN RETURN COULD MEAN MORE
RAINFALL FOR OUR LOCAL AREA.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM ON MONDAY, THEN COOLER ACROSS OUR WEST IN THE LOW TO MID
60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN BACK INTO THE 70S BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION, AND UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN SUBSTANTIALLY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUING THIS MORNING. WINDS SWITCH TO THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS BY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...GOMEZ
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