033
FXUS63 KLBF 032034
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
334 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUNDAY. SOME INCREASED CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER AS GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
LOOKING LESS LIKELY, HOWEVER.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARNING TREND
IS THEN EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
REGION TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT, BUT THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL OFFSET
THE RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECT SOMEWHAT, AND NO FROST OR NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
THE LEEWARD TROUGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION.
DEW POINTS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES, WITH A TONGUE OF MID 40S DEW
POINTS FLOWING INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DRIER DEW POINTS IN THE 30S
REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 70S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BECOME SOMEWHAT ELEVATED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 30S THROUGH
THE DAY. HUMIDITY VALUES IN THESE AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE 22-27%
RANGE. SOME RECENT GREEN-UP HAS OCCURRED, AND WITH ONLY
MARGINAL/ELEVATED CONCERNS NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
ATTENTION TURNS TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD BE
LOCATED OVER ARIZONA BY MONDAY EVENING. THE MONDAY IS A CLASSIC
OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN, WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING IN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM. CONVECTION
DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO AND
NEW MEXICO ON THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE THE ARIZONA UPPER LOW. THIS
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND PERHAPS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING
DRIER AIR ALOFT AND OVERALL IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN.
MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO NEW
MEXICO. LARGE SCALE LIFT OVERSPREADS WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO LATE MONDAY NIGHT, WITH CONVECTION LIKELY TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP
BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THIS OCCURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY
THIS CONVECTION NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, REACHING SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL REACH INTO NEBRASKA. ENS/GEFS AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE DATA WOULD SUGGEST THE MAJORITY OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TO
REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA STANDS
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING UP TO 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL
BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND GETS CARRIED OFF TO THE EAST
OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY. CONVECTION ALWAYS BRINGS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST, AND A SLIGHT WOBBLE OF THE MAIN
UPPER LOW IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. IF WOBBLES TO THE NORTH (LIKE
THE NAM SUGGESTS) HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD MATERIALIZE INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START THE WEEK NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL WITH THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN BACK TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT,
GENERALLY BELOW 10KTS. WINDS THEN STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH
LATE TOMORROW MORNING, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35KTS EXPECTED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROWN
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