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FXUS63 KLBF 040917
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
417 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
- WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC PRESSURE INCREASES
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUST UP TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON,
STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 83. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN DRY ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE SOME LIMITED MOISTURE PUSHED INTO THE AREA, DEW POINTS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 30S. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE FOR AREAS
WEST OF HWY 83 WHERE THERE WILL BE STRONGER WINDS, MIN RH
AROUND 25 TO 30 PERCENT AND HAVEN'T SEEN A LOT OF RECENT
RAINFALL IN THE AREA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
CONFIDENCE HAS LOWERED IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
MONDAY EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. IT IS
LOOKING LESS LIKELY FOR ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A MORE WESTWARD SHIFT IN PRECIPITATION, KEEPING BEST
PRECIP CHANCES WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER DID LEAVE SLIGHT
POPS IN THE FORECAST, GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 83. MOST
PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 00Z AND WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING SOME MODELS HAVE
SUGGESTED A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE, THUS HAVE
INCREASED COVERAGE AND HAVE MEDIUM FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP
ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD. LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED, HIGHER QPF VALUES WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN THE
WEST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO END THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER DAYBREAK, EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GOMEZ
LONG TERM...GOMEZ
AVIATION...NMJ
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