432
FXUS63 KLBF 042309
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
609 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
- PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, ALONG WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
CURRENTLY, GUSTY SOUTH WINDS PERSIST ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA, DUE TO A CONSTRICTED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE PRESSURE
OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING, DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS, DRY CONDITIONS, AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, EXPECT THE BROAD WARM ADVECTION TO
PERSIST, AND KEEP SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MILES PER HOUR THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THIS WILL PROMOTE MUCH MILDER LOW TEMPERATURES THAN THE
LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS, IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. THE BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING DEWPOINTS, CLIMBING INTO
THE UPPER 40S BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW, INCREASING CONVECTION
INITIATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE ADJACENT
PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO, WITH SOME THREAT OF THIS REACHING
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER, INCREASING DRY AIR
ALOFT LOOKS TO LARGELY TEMPER THIS ACTIVITY AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THAT SAID, CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE EVENING AND AFTER SUNSET ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. SOME THREAT
WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF
HWY 83. IN FACT, MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TOMORROW
RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, TO NEAR 80 IN
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT ONLY FALL
INTO THE 40S, AMID CLOUDY SKIES AND PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO/NEW MEXICO. IN RESPONSE, SURFACE
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS, WITH
INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT
LOW. CONFIDENCE WANES WITH RESPECT TO AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR THAT WILL
NEED TO BE OVERCOME LOCALLY. THIS DRY AIR WILL ALSO LEAD TO A
RATHER SHARP GRADIENT IN AMOUNTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST,
WITH PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SEEING LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS. AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM
THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING, PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY END.
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF >0.1" OF QPF MAXIMIZE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA (~60-80%), QUICKLY DROPPING TO ~10% OR LESS
FOR AREAS NORTH OF HWY 2 AND EAST OF HWY 83. THESE PROBABILITIES
DROP RAPIDLY FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS (>0.5"), WITH
AREAS OF FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LARGELY BELOW 20-30%. WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
UPPER RIDGING THEN AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS INTO LATE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND, WITH PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
LOCALLY. THIS WILL ALSO BOOST HIGHS TO END THE WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS COULD BRING A RETURN OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THOUGH THIS
THREAT WILL LARGELY BE TEMPERED BY INCREASING GREEN UP ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT THE KLBF TERMINAL MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT
THE KLBF TERMINAL AND WILL APPROACH THE KVTN TERMINAL LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...BUTTLER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page