450
FXUS63 KLBF 052003
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
303 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, MAINLY WESTERN SANDHILLS
AND SOUTHWEST.
- NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN TRENDING TO ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ARIZONA WITH A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CUMULUS
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA, WITH SKIES PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND 15 TO 25 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
THE FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
REMOVED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST
CAMS. ANY NEARBY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
NORTHEAST COLORADO, THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. WILL SEE AN INCREASE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
BECOME LIGHT TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LOWS AROUND 45 ACROSS THE
AREA.
TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SOUTHERN KANSAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL COLORADO.
INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS WITH AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HAVE
AFTERNOON POPS INCREASING TO 20-30 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND WESTERN SANDHILLS AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO SHOWS LITTLE OR ANY RAINFALL OVER THESE AREAS,
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID
30S TO LOW 40S, WILL KEEP THE LOW-LEVELS ON THE DRY SIDE, SO ANY
SHOWERS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING THE GROUND. SKIES
WILL RANGE FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, NOW FROM THE UPPER 70S FAR
NORTHEAST, MID 70S CENTRAL, TO NEAR 70 FAR WESTERN AREAS.
TUESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LOW WILL ADVANCE TOWARD NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL SEE
THE HIGHER POPS FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT, WITH LESSER 20 TO 40 POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST. QPFS HOWEVER HAVE LOWERED
FURTHER TO ONLY A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH, WITH
LITTLE FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. LOWS FROM 45
TO 50.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY WITH
SOME WEAK LIFT SHOWN. HOWEVER, LITTLE OF ANY RAINFALL EXPECTED
MOST LOCATIONS, WITH MEASURABLE AMOUNTS FAVORING SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS. SKIES AGAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
FROM UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70S WEST AND SOUTHWEST, TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S EAST. EASTERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA.
HIGHS FORECAST TO PUSH ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY,
WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY, AND MID TO UPPER 80S MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING,
INCREASING LOW STRATUS WILL LEAD TO MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERSPREADING
WESTERN NEBRASKA TERMINALS. THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
KLBF/KVTN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR/VFR SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA.
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TODAY, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
35KTS EXPECTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT,
BEFORE STRENGTHENING FROM THE EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...BROWN
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