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FXUS63 KLBF 061803
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
103 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
- WARMING TREND AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
- AFTER WEDNESDAY, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE MINIMAL
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. AS
IT BEGINS TO LIFT PRECIP CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE. FOR THE MORNING
HOURS, DID LOWER POPS, MANY CAMS HAVE REDUCED POPS FOR TUESDAY THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY LEADING TO LESS CONFIDENCE
FOR RAINFALL, THUS HAVE KEPT POPS GENERALLY 25 PERCENT OR LOWER. DID
KEEP THE "HIGHEST" PERCENTAGES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA, WHERE
THERE IS CURRENTLY REFLECTIVITY ON THE RADAR, HOWEVER LITTLE TO
NO PRECIP IS CURRENTLY REACHING THE GROUND, GIVEN RECENT
OBSERVATIONS. THIS IS DUE IN PART TO DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOWEST LEVELS. EXPECT MOISTURE TO INCREASE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN EASTWARD AND ADVECT MOISTURE TO
THE AREA, THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS AFTER 18Z. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL MOSTLY BE ISOLATED, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS FAR AS QPF VALUES,
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A TENTH WHICH WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO JUST A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS AND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, CENTERING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING, WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
THE RAIN HAS THUS FAR REMAINED WELL SOUTHWEST OF OUR TAF SITES
AND FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF KVTN, BUT COULD
EVENTUALLY SNEAK INTO KLBF BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF RAIN DOES
MAKE IT INTO KLBF IT WOULD LIKELY BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT AM JUST USING A
PROB30 TO HIGHLIGHT THE SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AT
KLBF. WE EXPECT INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD ESPECIALLY TONIGHT, BUT STILL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. CEILINGS COULD GET DOWN INTO THE 5K-8K AGL RANGE.
ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME 20 KT WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON, THE
WIND WILL BECOME RATHER LIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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