894
FXUS63 KLBF 062048
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
348 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE (~20-40%) THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING,
ONLY EXPECTING TRACE - 0.10" MOST AREAS. JUST A DROP IN THE
BUCKET AND NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE RAIN WE REALLY NEED.
- MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WARMING
TREND BRINGING EVERYONE UP INTO THE 80S THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IS RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT (20%).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...
THE BULK OF THE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH MAINLY WEAKENING SHOWERS
ROTATING NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
WE DO HAVE EAST/WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED NORTH OF I-80 AND
UP TO AROUND THEDFORD AND ALLIANCE WHERE WE ARE SEEING A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS OF 315 PM. WE HAVE NORTHERLY WINDS NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY ALONG I-80. WE COULD SEE AT LEAST A FEW ISOLATED NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS EVENING, MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. MLCAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE 0-6KM WIND SHEAR IS LESS THAN 20 KTS SO IF WE DO SEE
ANY SHOWERS TURN INTO THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, ITS UNLIKELY
THAT ANY OF THEM WILL BE VERY STRONG AND EVEN MORE UNLIKELY THAT
THEY WOULD BE SEVERE.
WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS KANSAS AND KEEP THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN BANDS WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS.
HOWEVER, WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
THAT COULD BE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (20-40%) DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS, BUT DIEING OUT AFTER SUNSET. THERE WILL AGAIN BE VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES GENERALLY
AROUND OR LESS THAN 500 J/KG. THEREFORE, ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT
EXPECT ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ON THURSDAY
BRINGING AN END TO THE SMALL RAINFALL CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS.
INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN
HIGHER NBM VALUES AND EXPECTATION FOR MORE SUNSHINE AS UPPER
SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND THEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN DIGGING
INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE LEADING TO
GOOD CONFIDENCE OF HIGHS IN THE 80S THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IS RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT AS THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY
INITIALLY REMAIN TOO FAR TO THE WEST. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES FINALLY PUSHES EAST INTO THE PLAINS JUST
BEYOND THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD (MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
THE RAIN HAS THUS FAR REMAINED WELL SOUTHWEST OF OUR TAF SITES
AND FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF KVTN, BUT COULD
EVENTUALLY SNEAK INTO KLBF BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF RAIN DOES
MAKE IT INTO KLBF IT WOULD LIKELY BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT AM JUST USING A
PROB30 TO HIGHLIGHT THE SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AT
KLBF. WE EXPECT INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD ESPECIALLY TONIGHT, BUT STILL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. CEILINGS COULD GET DOWN INTO THE 5K-8K AGL RANGE.
ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME 20 KT WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON, THE
WIND WILL BECOME RATHER LIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...WESELY
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